Welcome to the NFL Draft, where everything is made up and the stats don’t matter.
Seven Northwestern football players found professional homes in or after the 2015 NFL Draft, two via the draft itself (Ibraheim Campbell to the Cleveland Browns and Trevor Siemian to the Denver Broncos) and five more through free agency (Kyle Prater to Cleveland, Brandon Vitabile to the Indianapolis Colts, Chi Chi Ariguzo to the San Diego Chargers, Jimmy Hall to the Oakland Raiders and Tony Jones to Washington). Campbell and Siemian were the first ‘Cats to be drafted since Drake Dunsmore and Jeremy Ebert went in the seventh round in 2012.
Many experts considered Campbell, a standout at Northwestern since day one, to be a top NFL prospect at safety. His name was called in the fourth round with the 115th overall pick. The surprise was Siemian, who the Broncos snatched in the seventh round with a compensatory selection. Siemian was one of only seven quarterbacks drafted, joining a list that included two Heisman winners in Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota.
There’s no doubt that Siemian is a fantastic athlete, but according to the statistics, he is a long way from being a blue-chip NFL prospect. He threw 18 touchdowns compared to 20 interceptions in his final two years at Northwestern, and only spent one year as the lone starter. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he failed to finish in the top 100 among NCAA quarterbacks in Total Quarterback Rating, a statistic widely recognized as the best overall measure of a quarterback’s performance. On top of all that, Siemian suffered a season-ending ACL tear in the second-to-last game of his senior year, an injury he still hasn’t fully recovered from.
But it wasn’t the stats that drew Broncos GM John Elway and company to Siemian; it was the tape and a number of impressive workouts. When visiting the Broncos to work out with a number of his Northwestern teammates, Siemian dazzled Denver’s scouts, displaying a quick release and impressive mobility. Clearly, he made an impression, despite not having fully recovered from his ACL tear.
“I just wanted to prove to teams that I was coming along with my rehab and my knee was working better,” Siemian said before the draft. “I’m not a finished product, but there’s improvement in my knee, so things are looking up from that standpoint.”
Siemian went from being the starter on a 5-7 Big Ten team to being a potential backup for Peyton Manning on a team two seasons removed from an AFC Championship. He has a long way to go if he wants to get there, and when asked about the prospect of playing with an all-time great, he remained grounded in reality.
“I haven’t put much thought into it,” he said. “I’m five months out of ACL surgery, so if that situation were to come up I would obviously be really excited. But so much has to happen between now and then that it's tough for me to look that far ahead.”
With still a month to go in rehab and weeks of workouts and mini-camps ahead of him, Siemian has plenty to prove if he wants to sit on the Denver sideline come September. But Elway and head coach Gary Kubiak both have spoken highly of Siemian in the press, and he believes he can be a quality player in the NFL.
“I knew I had a chance going into my senior year,” Siemian said. “I knew I was good enough, and I had confidence in myself that I could play past my senior year. At the same time, I wanted to focus on Northwestern and didn’t want to cheat anyone in the program. We didn’t have the year we wanted, obviously, so I only really thought about [the NFL] at the beginning of last year.”
Siemian wasn’t the only key piece of Northwestern’s offense to get his number called. Just after the final picks were made in Chicago, wide receiver Kyle Prater signed with the Browns as an undrafted free agent. Like Siemian, the former USC transfer and five-star recruit overcame injuries and a lack of collegiate production to get a chance to play in the NFL.
Prater was the number one receiver and the number three overall prospect in the country coming out of high school, but he never found his footing at USC due to a number of injuries. After transferring to Northwestern in 2012, he continued to struggle, catching only 19 passes in his first two seasons in Evanston. Fans and reporters were quick to label Prater a “bust,” and Prater said he knew he had to make a change heading into his final year of eligibility. But instead of pushing his body even harder, he took a step back and focused his energy towards religion.
“Re-dedicating my life to God was one of the biggest things for me, and helped me to refocus a lot of things,” Prater said. “I grew up in the church, and I got away from it when I first went off to school. It definitely helped me on the field, and also as a person.”
His final year at Northwestern was a marked improvement, catching 51 balls compared to 19 in his first two seasons. He also caught two touchdowns, and caught every pass on the Wildcats’ final drive of regulation in their upset win at Notre Dame.
“Towards the end of the season, I was feeling like I could do what I wanted to do on the field,” he said. “I was taking care of my body in the way I hadn’t done in previous years, and I had no hiccups. Over the course of the season, everything started to fall together, and I think it’s a testimony to God and everything I’ve been through.”
His X-factors are his size and freakish athleticism. Standing at 6-foot-5, 225 pounds, Prater has the imposing size and reach that NFL scouts drool over. Had his career not been derailed by injuries, Prater very well could have put together a collegiate resume that more accurately reflected his physical skills. Yet here he is, an undrafted free agent with a long way to go before he lands himself a spot on the 53-man roster.
“I still have to go in there and prove myself,” Prater said. “I just have to stay humble and hungry, and I have to day in and day out prove myself as a person and a player.”
Prater certainly has the frame and athleticism to be a productive NFL player, and he is confident in his ability.
“I know that the player they’re going to get is a gem,” he said. “A hidden gem.”
After what has to be the most Northwestern-friendly draft period in recent history, it’s hard not to be excited. Neither Prater nor Siemian had the type of collegiate careers that typically translate to NFL success. But then again, guys like Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell had horrendous NFL careers after standout seasons in college, and guys like Tom Brady and Victor Cruz went on to have highly productive careers after being largely unknown in college (Brady went in the sixth round and Cruz was undrafted, just like Prater). Only time will tell if Prater and Siemian will have successful NFL careers, but statistics aren't everything, and perhaps the best is yet to come.