Along the purple-stained sideline of Welsh-Ryan Arena reads “Chicago’s Big Ten team.” Most visiting opponents will hardly notice it, let alone question whether Northwestern is the true representative for Windy City college basketball.
Against Illinois, however, it reads as the beginning to a captivating narrative.
The Wildcats and Fighting Illini have quietly become one of the Big Ten’s most prominent rivalries. After exchanging football’s Land of Lincoln Trophy four times in the past six seasons, last year Northwestern also beat Illinois by four points after losing to the same team earlier in the season by one. Regardless of where both programs are at right now, you can’t help but notice something special about Thursday’s game.
Northwestern (10-7, 1-3 Big Ten) comes off a discouraging 20-point drubbing from Iowa last Sunday. Failing to shore up their post defense and struggling from the floor, the Wildcats shot a paltry 29.4 percent on field goals. Meanwhile, No. 23 Illinois (14-4, 1-3) looks to rebound after consecutive conference losses to Wisconsin and Minnesota.
The Fighting Illini tout one of the nation’s most prolific scorers in senior guard Brandon Paul, but are just 2-2 against ranked opponents this year. Under first-year head coach John Groce, Illinois is averaging over 73 points a night but continues to struggle on the glass after losing center Meyers Leonard to the NBA.
Check out a breakdown of Northwestern's upcoming game in Champaign with predictions and analysis below.
Northwestern’s keys to the game
Don’t force the perimeter offense
Since losing senior forward Drew Crawford to a torn labrum, the Wildcats have lacked a definitive leading scorer who can set up his own offense. With senior forward Reggie Hearn struggling with inconsistency, the ‘Cats have been caught forcing threes and heaving up bad shots, creating costly dry spells for the offense.
Northwestern’s Princeton offense lends itself to back-door screens and flexible center play, so this one is on freshman Alex Olah. If the Wildcats force shots behind perimeter shooters Kale Abrahamson and Alex Marcotullio, things could get dicey.
Involve Tre Demps
Redshirt freshman guard Tre Demps has shown flashes of promise this year, but the San Antonio native is averaging under 15 minutes a game. Demps gives the offense an added dimension and a fresh pair of legs, while his field goal percentage has risen by a drastic .214 since last season.
Shut down Brandon Paul
It’s obvious, of course, but Northwestern’s success Thursday night is contingent on how Illinois’ leading scorer performs.
The Wildcats may look to run the 1-3-1 zone if nobody can keep pace with Paul. Averaging over 18 points a game, the senior’s shooting a career-best .416 from the floor and is converting over 36 percent of his three-pointers.
Against Wisconsin, Paul was shut down in man defense by sophomore guard Traevon Jackson and senior forward Mike Bruesewitz. Perhaps a combination of senior Reggie Hearn and fifth-yeajr senior Jared Swopshire could have similar results.
Paul’s strength is finding the open three. Northwestern will need to be diligent in shifts and quick on rotations.
What it means
A win here could hurl the Wildcats’ season in a completely new direction.
Northwestern’s 1-3 conference record portends a rough season in the competitive Big Ten. But an upset of a ranked opponent on the road could change all of that. The Wildcats need to establish an offensive gameplan that goes beyond testing the perimeter every possession.
A loss, however, leaves Northwestern’s season looking just as bleak as it does now. NU would be 1-4 in-conference and losers of five of their last seven games.
Prediction
Illinois averages 8.1 more points per game than Northwestern, and the Wildcats don’t have a player who can set a tempo like Brandon Paul. Sophomore point guard Tracy Abrams will be a tough matchup for Northwestern’s Dave Sobolewski, and while the Fighting Illini have had their problems on the glass, the Wildcats are far worse.
Illinois 76, Northwestern 59