Vying for a berth in the prestigious Outback Bowl and looking to claim the Land of Lincoln Trophy for the first time in three years, Northwestern rounds out its regular season by hosting the Illinois Fighting Illini Saturday at Ryan Field.
In what’s perennially a hotly contested in-state duel, Saturday’s rivalry game looks decidedly tamer this year. Illinois sits at a paltry 2-9 record and has yet to beat a Big Ten opponent, while the Wildcats remain competitive in the bowl hunt. Last year, the Illini scored 21 points in the fourth quarter and beat the ‘Cats in a 38-35 nail-biter at Memorial Stadium in Champaign.
Dual-threat quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase has regressed in his junior season, throwing more interceptions (six) than touchdown passes (four) thus far. Illinois is allowing more than 30 points per game and has lost by two scores or more seven times. Meanwhile, Northwestern looks to clinch only its second nine-win season in the past decade after topping Michigan State 23-20 last week.
Saturday’s “Senior Day” also marks the final time that linebacker David Nwabuisi, guard Brian Mulroe, wideout Demetrius Fields and defensive back Demetrius Dugar take Ryan Field.
Although running back Venric Mark and cornerback Nick VanHoose are dealing with lingering upper-body injuries, and Kain Colter continues to be hobbled by an ankle problem, this one has all the makings of an easy Northwestern win.
Key match-ups
CB Demetrius Dugar vs. WR Ryan Lankford
It’s no secret that Dugar has struggled to contain the big play this year, and Illinois will look to torch the outside with No. 1 read Ryan Lankford. With 469 receiving yards and five touchdown grabs in his junior year, Lankford has the potential to wreak havoc in Northwestern’s spotty secondary.
While Lankford hasn’t hit the endzone in five games, opposing receivers have had no problem finding holes in the Wildcats’ second level for most of the season. This turns into a trap game if Lankford busts out a few deep receptions.
Illinois’ offense vs. third downs
The Fighting Illini rank 112th in FBS third down conversions, eighth-worst in the country. Illinois moves the chains less than a third of the time and will need to maintain a better success rate if it hopes to pull off the upset. Northwestern ranks 69th in the nation in third down defense.
If the Illinois running game stalls, third downs become a nightmare. The Illini will look to stretch the field with the athletic Scheelhaase under center, but NU has done a good job sniffing out the option in 2012.
Northwestern’s stars vs. their health
It’s an obvious one, but with an easy opponent coming to town, Northwestern fans will shift some focus toward the injury status of Colter and Mark. Both players are expected to play Saturday, although the jury’s out on just how many reps each will see.
With Northwestern slated to play a mid-level SEC team in a New Year’s bowl game, Colter and Mark need to stay at top speed.
Northwestern vs. the fourth quarter
All three of NU’s losses this year have come with a fourth quarter lead. After coming away with a crucial win in East Lansing last Saturday, the Wildcats need to continue building on their ability to close out games and hang close in crunch time. True, Illinois is certainly not of Michigan or Nebraska’s caliber, but in the season’s finale, anything can happen.
Much of Northwestern’s fourth quarter ineptitudes can be attributed to a sluggish pass rush and unimaginative run calls. Look for the ‘Cats to continue stretching the outside even with a lead, rather than dialing up three straight gut handoffs.
Player to watch for: DE Michael Buchanan
A preseason nominee for the Ted Hendricks Award, given to the nation’s top defensive end, Buchanan could break Northwestern’s pocket all afternoon. With a team-high 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble, the Wildcats will have to watch him along the edge.
Northwestern’s offensive line was a bit off against Michigan State. Let’s see how they fare against Buchanan and an otherwise lackluster Illini pass rush come Saturday.
What it means for bowl season
A win for the Wildcats all but ensures a trip to Florida on New Year’s Day, be it in the Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl or the Outback Bowl. The Gator Bowl features the No. 4 Big Ten team against the SEC’s No. 6, while the Outback Bowl showcases each conference’s No. 3 team.
With Ohio State still banned from postseason contention and Nebraska and Michigan looking like the conference’s top two options, Northwestern will have to bank on poor performances from Wisconsin. Even though the Badgers have won the depleted Leaders division, a loss to Penn State and a weak showing in the Big Ten title game would put Northwestern in the Outback Bowl.
Prediction
At home and against a shoddy opponent, it’s tough to go against Northwestern here. Even without Colter and Mark at full strength, the Wildcats are much faster and have a whole lot more to play for than Illinois does.
Northwestern 34, Illinois 13