Heading into this weekend’s action, Northwestern remains the only FBS team with three wins against BCS conference opponents. The undefeated ‘Cats host the South Dakota Coyotes on Saturday, a final tune-up before kicking off Big Ten play a week later.
Northwestern’s win over Boston College last Saturday garnered some national attention, as the Wildcats earned 41 votes in the AP’s latest Top 25 poll. Northwestern’s defense appears to have found its stride, allowing just 13 points in each of its past two efforts, while Kain Colter and Trevor Siemian’s dual-quarterback offense has yet to be slowed.
The Wildcats will look to go 4-0 for just the third time in the past decade. Kickoff is set for 2:30 CDT.
Scouting the opponent
South Dakota is Northwestern’s only FCS (formerly Division I-AA) foe of 2012, but the ‘Cats must be on their heels to avoid a trap game.
The Coyotes have won just twice in 29 all-time match-ups with the Big Ten, their last win coming against Minnesota in 2010. After dropping a season opener to Montana, they notched four rushing touchdowns in a 31-21 win over Colgate two weeks ago.
Fresh off a bye, the ‘Yotes will have their work cut out for them against junior tailback Venric Mark and the Northwestern ground game. South Dakota’s allowed nearly five yards per touch to opposing rushers in 2012.
Sophomore quarterback Josh Vander Maten can burn a defense both ways, touting a 4.3 yards per carry average and completing more than 70 percent of his passes through two games. The Coyotes’ vertical game lies with sophomore Terrance Terry, who has caught both of the team’s receiving touchdowns.
What to watch for
No fly zone: Northwestern has been quick to shut down the run, ranking 16th in the country in total rush defense, and allowing a paltry 2.86 yards per carry to opposing offenses.
Through the air, however, the Wildcats have struggled.
Boston College’s Chase Rettig threw for 291 yards on Saturday, and Pat Fitzgerald’s D will need to sure up in the secondary come conference play. While South Dakota’s passing game doesn’t pose much of a threat, the Wildcats need to guard the deep ball and build some momentum for coming weeks.
Third time’s the charm: NU moved the chains on 12 of 19 third down plays last weekend, and boast an impressive 50 percent third down conversion rate on the year. Coyote opponents have converted on 55 percent of third downs in 2012, and if Northwestern can continue its crunch-time success on Saturday, they will take full control of the game’s tempo.
Hanging on to the ball: South Dakota has already scooped up three fumbles this year, while Northwestern lost two fumbles last week alone. Perhaps the best chance the underdog Coyotes have in this one is if the Wildcats beat themselves and fail to protect the football. Keep an eye on how Northwestern fares in the turnover department.
Under pressure: The Wildcats have just five sacks through their first three games, and rank 74th among FBS schools in tackles for losses. Northwestern’s front seven needs to be more aggressive, and against an FCS O-line, the ‘Cats have a serious chance to force a few mistakes from Vander Maten.
Go-to guy: Leading receiver Demetrius Fields is averaging fewer than nine yards per grab thus far and no NU receiver has more than one touchdown catch. Against a weak Coyotes defense, Northwestern will take a step toward finding a definitive No. 1 option on passing plays. Expect to see USC transfer Kyle Prater find the Ryan Field endzone for the first time, or for speedy sophomore Tony Jones to see a few extra targets.
Prediction
Sure, FCS/FBS upsets happen, but it looks like South Dakota does not have the firepower to stay with the ‘Cats. On home turf, Northwestern should win big and move to 4-0.
Northwestern 38, South Dakota 10