Say it ain’t so, Carmody. Say it ain’t so.
Just a week ago, there was unbridled hype sweeping Welsh-Ryan Arena, as the Wildcats quickly changed the course of their season with three consecutive wins against conference opponents. Yet back-to-back road losses at the hands of Purdue and No. 20 Indiana have NU’s tournament chances on the edge of the college basketball abyss. The heartbreaking defeats came in true Northwestern fashion: The ‘Cats played competitively for 37 minutes, only to fall flat in the final three with porous defense and inefficient offense.
The Wildcats now face another must-win match-up when they host Minnesota on Saturday. Like Northwestern, the Golden Gophers stand at a disappointing 5-8 in Big Ten play and are desperately clinging to an invitation to the Big Dance. A crucial victory just may catapult the ‘Cats to a late-season rampage, but at bare minimum, Saturday’s contest is a great way to bolster senior John Shurna’s draft status, foster the development of freshman Dave Sobolewski and elicit a gradual change in culture for NU sports.
What happened last time:
Carmody and company travelled to Williams Arena less than a month ago to take on a then-surging Gophers team. The results were less than favorable for the ‘Cats, as they were dominated on both ends of the floor en route to a 75-52 beat-down. NU shot a measly 32.7 percent on field goals, while Minnesota flaunted their skills from behind the arc with 12 threes. Northwestern’s perimeter defense was exploited all night, and star forward Drew Crawford struggled with just five points.
What’s changed since then:
Northwestern has since developed its own penchant for three-pointers and Sobolewski has averaged 12.5 points per contest since the Minnesota game, a drastic improvement from his earlier offensive showings. Still, NU comes into round two with the Gophers with the same mentality as last time: A win could help the team get hot at the right time, while a loss may be the potential nail in the coffin for the 2011-12 season.
On the other end of the court, Minnesota has gone 2-4 since January’s meeting with the ‘Cats. With three upcoming games against ranked conference opponents, Tubby Smith’s squad needs a win on Saturday to mitigate the sudden pressure that the Gophers face.
Key match-up: John Shurna vs. Rodney Williams
It’s been said countless times this year, but it remains true: John Shurna is Northwestern’s lifeblood. If Shurna can establish a rhythm early on, the Wildcats will score in bunches. Meanwhile, Minnesota junior Rodney Williams has emerged as the team’s unquestioned offensive leader since big-man Trevor Mbakwe’s season was cut short with a knee injury. Williams lacks interior presence standing at just 6’7” and averaging 5.3 boards per game. However, shooting better than 57 percent from the floor this season, he poses a serious match-up threat for Shurna and the ‘Cats. Shurna’s surefire shooting should show up on Saturday, but if he can’t contain Minnesota’s best pure talent on the defensive end, NU will reluctantly take a third straight loss.
What to look for:
Which Dave Sobolewski will show up against the Gophers? His duplicity has been a key reason for the Wildcats’ inconsistencies in 2011-12, and Northwestern will rely heavily on an improved effort from Sobo after Wednesday’s disappointing performance. In Bloomington, the freshman sensation scored just three points in 36 minutes of floor time, while uncharacteristically committing more turnovers than assists for the first time in his short career.
Sobolewski’s stellar outings against Nebraska, Illinois and Iowa all translated to victories for the Wildcats. If the Naperville native can put up double-digit points and a handful of dishes, Northwestern should be in good shape come Saturday.
Where we’ll stand afterward, win or loss:
While a win doesn’t change all that much in the Big Ten standings, Saturday’s game is still vital for gaining momentum and building an NCAA Tournament résumé. With a top-50 RPI and a fair share of impressive conference upsets, NU’s campaign for an at-large bid starts with a home win against the Gophers and then against Michigan on Tuesday.
On the other hand, a loss all but locks Northwestern into the NIT, barring stunning victories against Ohio State on Feb. 29 and an improbable run through the Big Ten Tournament. Perhaps Shurna pictured walking off into the sunset in his final season in Wildcat purple, but Northwestern will instead be running for their Tournament lives from here on out.