North by Northwestern

Slumdog. Its such a weird year, and I think in a different year, Slumdog would be the underdog pick that wouldn’t win but people would feel good about seeing nominated, but up against the other nominees this year, which is a strange field, Slumdog comes out as really strong because it’s very strong, traditional melodramatic storytelling. Kind of mixes British with some Bollywood affectations. It’s doing Hollywood melodrama better than Hollywood does these days … One thing about the Oscars and trying to predict what’s gonna win in the bigger categories, you have to stop and ask: How does Hollywood collectively want to see itself? And the Oscars are a big part of the public face of how Hollywood wants to see itself. This is why for instance, although [The] Dark Knight is really great, its not nominated because there’s a little bit of guilt over the fact that so many movies being made are comic book movies. If Dark Knight were more of an anomaly, if we didn’t have [other superhero movies] … I just think that Hollywood wants to counter the image of being comic book zone.

I would call it for [Sean] Penn or [Mickey] Rourke, in that order. Rourke is a big comeback, but Penn is the stalwart who has been at it for a while and Milk has been kicking around Hollywood, so this has been in the works … I don’t think Milk is gonna take any other awards. Also, The Wrestler may be seen as a one-off.

There’s only one other posthumous Oscar [for an actor] — Peter Finch from Network. But I think the wave of sentiment is there for Heath and it is a genuinely amazing performance.

The whole thing about this year … it’s been kinda messed up by the writer’s strike … not a year with emerging Oscar contenders. Usually, you can imagine a movie being nominated in late August, but this isn’t a year like that. I am gonna say Anne Hathaway. I’m probably wrong, but this is another one where Rachel Getting Married is probably not going to get honored in another category, but I think that Jonathan Demi has been really well respected, and this movie is a return to form for him.

Amy Adams. Pretty much because I like her. Doubt is also a Scott Rudin movie, so I think it’s a category where its easy to spread the love.

[The Curious Case of] Benjamin Button. They go for history stuff in these kinds of categories. David Fincher has proven to be a great director of production designers and art directors … like with Zodiac and Fight Club.

I’m kinda split between Milk and Benjamin Button. That’s a tough call.

That’ll be Benjamin Button. It could be Hellboy I suppose, but I just see a shutout for comic book movies.

Wont be Slumdog [Millionaire] ’cause it’s video format. Lets go with Benjamin Button. The tricky thing here is that The Reader may not take a bunch of awards, and Benjamin Button is visual stuff. Dark Knight … I don’t think they’re gonna give anything to it.

I’m gonna be contrary and say Frost/Nixon. Im gonna be totally wrong …

Benjamin Button. Hands down, again [with this movie] it’s about really awarding top-form Hollywood competence, and whats remarkable about BB is the seamlessness of the CGI and realism. Maybe they’ll want to go with something more fantastical … maybe that’s the sop to the comic book movies.

Wall-E for sound. Ben Burt, that’s his ultimate career triumph.

Slumdog. Mixing is a different thing, its how you put all these elements together, and Slumdog is sort of a particular thing with its combo of music and situations with a lot of interesting sounds that have to go with the locations. The sound design is an area where that world comes to life.

Thomas Newman … his scores tend to be really conservative, and he’s been nominated so many times. Danny Elfman may win but only after he’s been nominated 10 times over.

Peter Gabriel is all protest-y this year against the Oscars, but I don’t know if that will make a difference. I wanna say Wall-E.

I’m gonna say Milk or Happy Go Lucky. The category seems to have loosened up. Happy Go Lucky was well regarded but movies like Lost in Translation have paved the way for a type of improv screenplay writing. Wall-E’s screenplay is interesting because its so visual/sound oriented, Pixar screenplays really are fantastic. Some of the best in the business.

Doubt. John Patrick Shanley has a Pulitzer-winning play … ripped from the headline issues … he makes money for Hollywood.

The Class. It’s just gotten consistent attention throughout the year … and it feels like the way things go. And the director is very well respected.

I’m gonna say Man on Wire or Trouble the Water. [Trouble the Water]’s about Katrina. And the documentary category … we see politics emerge every so often, so I would say maybe Man on Wire, then Trouble the Water second.