It’s hard to think that it was less than three weeks ago that thousands of exuberant Wildcats stormed the court at Welsh-Ryan Arena. Shurna and Co. had just upset their bitter Big Ten rival Michigan State, the No. 6 team in the nation, sending shockwaves through the world of college basketball. Since then the ‘Cats have dropped three straight contests, much to the chagrin of the Evanston faithful. Thanks to two double-digit road losses to unranked opponents and Saturday’s game-winning baseline jumper from Purdue star Robbie Hummel, Northwestern’s tournament hopes are in free fall. Now standing at 12-8 and just 2-6 in conference play, the Wildcats will face a must-win matchup Thursday when the Nebraska Cornhuskers come to town.
What happened last time:
While neither school will soon forget their Nov. 5 clash on the gridiron when Northwestern shocked then-No. 10 Nebraska, these two basketball programs have a head-to-head history that’s far from memorable. The ‘Cats and the Cornhuskers have tipped off just three times since 1975, with their last meeting coming in the 1999-2000 campaign. This year’s conference realignment, which added Nebraska to the Big Ten, ensures that these teams will see much more of each other in coming years.
What’s changed since then:
Neither school has made an NCAA Tournament appearance since 1999’s game, and both are eager to change that this season. A tournament berth would incite a complete change in culture for either program, asserting Nebraska’s legitimacy as a Big Ten competitor or ameliorating a painful past for the Wildcats.
Much has changed since the beginning of this season as well. Through the first seven games of its 2011-12 campaign, Northwestern seemed destined for the Big Dance at 7-0, while Nebraska was a pedestrian 4-3. Yet the ‘Cats now find themselves amidst a three-game losing streak, and the Cornhuskers have compiled impressive victories over Penn State, Iowa and No. 11 Indiana since falling short in their first four contests against Big Ten opponents.
Key match-ups: John Shurna vs. Toney McCray
Though Northwestern has been plagued by inconsistency this year, one thing remains certain: senior forward John Shurna has the perimeter skills to change the tempo of a game at any time. Averaging 19 points per game and shooting better than 42 percent from behind the arc, Shurna is a pure outside scorer who gives opposing coaches fits. The ‘Cats are becoming increasingly reliant on his abilities, and if Shurna can deliver on Thursday night they should have no problem picking up the W.
Shurna will be guarded by senior forward Toney McCray, arguably Nebraska’s most complete player. The 6’6” McCray has averaged 10.1 points and five rebounds per game this year, both second-best for the Cornhuskers. Although undersized, his defensive prowess and his athleticism could pose difficulties for Shurna. And if McCray can prevent Northwestern’s star from driving to the basket or getting open looks, Nebraska has a chance to pick up a huge road victory.
What to look for:
Will the Wildcats finally end their rebounding woes on Thursday night? Northwestern comes into this contest ranking a horrid 310th in the nation on the glass, and the 6'9" Shurna leads the team with an average of just 5.9 boards per game. On the other hand, Nebraska sports one of the smallest starting fives in the conference, and top rebounder Brandon Ubel is averaging just 5.3 per contest. In short, Thursday's matchup features two teams that have struggled to maintain possession of the basketball, and the game will likely be decided by whoever steps up and improves their performance on the boards.
The Cornhuskers are far from a superior offensive force, shooting just 42.4 percent from the field as a team in 2011-12. Still, if Shurna and senior big-man Davide Curletti are ineffective with their interior defense and are unable to clean up on the glass, Nebraska will have additional scoring opportunities that could inspire a new look for this stagnant offense.
Where we’ll stand afterward, win or loss:
A myriad of injuries and a few last-second losses have Carmody’s ‘Cats desperate entering Thursday’s game. Following Saturday’s 58-56 defeat at the hands of the Boilermakers, Northwestern simply must beat Nebraska to revive hopes of a Big Ten Tournament run and possibly even an NCAA Tournament bid. A win is the first step toward building momentum for a late-season push, and with formidable upcoming games against Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio State, the Wildcats need to take care of business while they still can.
Meanwhile, a loss to the ‘Huskers would drop Northwestern to a paltry 2-7 in conference games and all but kill any lingering dreams for a chance at the tourney. If the 'Cats have an improbable February run up their sleeves, Thursday night is the time to roll up those sleeves and let loose.