On Saturday, Northwestern will look for its fourth straight victory over Iowa, and its sixth in seven years. The ‘Cats, losers of three straight games after a home loss last weekend to Michigan, badly need a victory to have any chance of staying in Big Ten contention. Here’s a look at a few statistics that could tip the balance of this weekend’s game toward either Iowa or Northwestern:
27.8 points per game: Northwestern is averaging 27.8 points per game this season – not a terrible number, but only good enough to rank the ‘Cats 66th in the nation. On the flipside, Northwestern’s opponents have averaged the exact same figure against the ‘Cats, leaving them in a similarly paltry position of 73rd in the nation. However, the fact that the points for and against are exactly the same shows that Northwestern is likely to be in a lot more close games this season. Expect another close one this Saturday against the Hawkeyes.
Exceptional second quarter play: This week’s matchup might come down to play in the second quarter, in which both the ‘Cats and Hawkeyes have been dominating opponents. NU has outscored opponents 52-24 in the second quarter, while Iowa has a 47-13 advantage over its opponents in that quarter. Northwestern especially needs to play well in the second quarter, as the ‘Cats have been outscored by 35 combined points in the second halves of their games so far this season, including a 28-0 margin last Saturday against Michigan. The Wildcats’ second half failures mixed with Iowa’s relative success (the Hawkeyes have outscored opponents by seven points in the second half) means the ‘Cats will need to play strong early.
Marvin McNutt, X-Factor: All three Hawkeye victories this season have come on the heels of big games from top receiver Marvin McNutt. In these wins, the senior has caught at least six passes and totaled at least 100 yards. In both Iowa losses, McNutt was held under 75 yards and had four catches in each game. If the ‘Cats can put the clamps on McNutt, it could stall the Iowa passing game - their strongest aspect so far. The NU secondary has struggled to deal with quality and especially tall receivers so far, and the 6’4’’ McNutt could pose a big challenge to the Wildcat secondary.
Spreading the ball around: The Hawkeyes have been far more successful in spreading the ball around than the ‘Cats so far this season. Iowa boasts three receivers averaging at least 40 yards per game – Keenan Davis and Kevonte Martin-Manley serve as solid second and third options to McNutt – while the ‘Cats have struggled to find options besides Jeremy Ebert. Drake Dunsmore and Jacob Schmidt are the only other Wildcat receivers that have double-digit receptions this season, and neither are actual wide receivers. While Northwestern’s primary focus will likely be on McNutt, the secondary will have its hands full containing the deep Iowa receiving corps. Meanwhile, Iowa will be able to focus almost exclusively on Ebert, as no other Wildcat receiver has stepped up enough so far this season.