Northwestern played a familiar tune Wednesday by blowing a late lead and losing an overtime thriller to Michigan in Ann Arbor. After losing two close contests to Illinois and then Michigan, Northwestern has to forget about the almost-wins, find a way to get over the hurdle and win a conference game. Now just 1-3 in Big Ten play, the 'Cats are desperate for a win to keep their tournament dreams alive, and their first opportunity comes Saturday, when they will face a red-hot, Top 10 Michigan State Spartan team in Welsh-Ryan arena.
What happened last time:
Almost exactly a year ago, the ‘Cats dropped an overtime heartbreaker to the Spartans, 67-71, in East Lansing. Senior captain Michael "Juice" Thompson passed Patrick Baldwin to become Northwestern’s all-time leader in assists, as he had five on the day to go with 15 points. Thompson played all 45 minutes and willed the ‘Cats to overtime, but despite that effort and 16 points from Drew Crawford, Michigan State was able to squeak out the victory, outscoring Northwestern 11-7 in overtime.
What’s changed since then:
For the ‘Cats, the missing piece is point guard Juice Thompson, who graduated last year. Thompson led the charge all of last season, and while freshman point guard Dave Sobolewski has been solid thus far, Thompson’s veteran command of the team on the floor has been irreplaceable.
Most of the team's core is back this year for the No. 6 Spartans, led by sophomore guard Keith Appling and senior forward Draymond Green who were both key in MSU's victory over the 'Cats last season. While star guard Kalin Lucas is gone, the Spartans have more than weathered his loss as freshman forward Brendan Dawson and senior guard Brandon Wood have picked up the slack for the 14-2 team.
Key matchup: John Shurna vs. Draymond Green
As Shurna goes, so does Northwestern. Last year, the Spartans stifled Shurna, who shot just 2-10 from the field and was held to six points. Meanwhile, Green netted 16 points and pulled down eight rebounds for the Spartans. Green, a six foot seven forward, should match up with Shurna at small forward. Each player leads his team in both scoring and rebounding (Shurna averages 18.7 points per game and 6.1 rebounds, while Green averages 15.6 and 9.8). Shurna has yet to have a big game against a tough opponent (with miserable games against both No. 7 Baylor and No. 2 Ohio State), so another Top 10 opponent gives Shurna a chance to prove himself worthy of his preseason accolades.
What to look for:
The ‘Cats and Spartans are at opposite ends of the rebounding spectrum. While Michigan State ranks eighth in the nation in cleaning the glass, Northwestern is a putrid 299th, a figure far too low for a legitimate tournament team. The pressure will be on starting senior center Luka Mirkovic to rebound early and set the tone for the big men. If he fails, you can bet Coach Carmody won’t hesitate to bring in reserve big man senior Davide Curletti. Of course, as mentioned above, Shurna will need to make a major contribution on the glass as well, but it will take a full team effort to counteract the dominant Spartan rebounding that has been the greatest strength of this outstanding team (and national title contender).
Where we'll stand afterwards, win or loss:
A win for the ‘Cats would be huge for the tournament campaign. So far, the ‘Cats have dropped all three games to ranked opponents (No. 2 Ohio State, No. 7 Baylor and No. 21 Creighton), meaning they haven’t proven they can truly play on the big stage. An upset of a Top 10 team would be a major boost if the ‘Cats are a bubble team (19-21 wins, a likely figure for this team).
A loss, while not crushing, would certainly be demoralizing. The key for the ‘Cats will be to keep it close, which they were unable to do in their previous Top 10 match-ups. While losing to a team of Michigan State’s caliber is understandable and even expected, Northwestern must remain competitive to show that it is capable of playing with big time opponents.