On Tuesday, the Miami Dolphins took a little suspense away from this weekend’s NFL Draft when they announced the signing of Jake Long, making him the No. 1 overall pick this year. The stud offensive tackle from the University of Michigan signed a deal worth nearly $58 million, with $30 million of that guaranteed. Not bad for a guy who’s still in college.
The drafting of Long is perhaps the beginning of a trend in the NFL Draft. As Michael Rosenberg said on Fox Sports, the top overall pick in the draft — the spot in the draft where Super Bowl champions Peyton and Eli Manning, John Elway, Troy Aikman and Terry Bradshaw were selected — is now fast becoming undesirable.
Why? Too much risk.
For every Manning, Bruce Smith and, yes, O.J. Simpson, there are many No. 1 busts. Some of the recent misfires: David Carr, Tim Couch, Ki-Jana Carter and Courtney Brown. None of those players ever made the playoffs with their drafted teams or made the Pro Bowl.
But at the top of the draft, a “bust” can be defined in many ways. Consider:
- In 2001, the Atlanta Falcons acquired Virginia Tech standout Michael Vick. Vick went to the Pro Bowl three times, and even led the Falcons to the 2004 NFC Championship, one game short of the Super Bowl. However, Vick was convicted of dogfighting in 2007, ruining his public image and most likely his future career. Does that make Vick a bust despite his Pro Bowls and exciting style of play, which arguably contributed to the development of the modern NFL quarterback?
- How about Vinny Testaverde? He was picked first way back in 1987, by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He retired this January. To play for 21 years, you need to be an incredible competitor and a terrific, smart player. But he was never the franchise quarterback that the Bucs envisioned.
- The same can be said for someone such as “Big Daddy” Dan Wilkinson, the 1994 No. 1 pick. While having a decent career (it lasted 13 years), he never panned out to be a Hall of Famer or even a Pro Bowler.
If you are drafted No. 1 and given millions of dollars to show up at a press conference and sign a contract, you are expected to perform better than anyone else in your draft. But teams aren’t guaranteed a Hall of Famer when they draft at the top — only 11 first picks have ever made the Hall of Fame. Nowadays, the only thing you’re guaranteed is paying a ton of money before your picks ever see the field.
This brings us back to the selection of Jake Long. Long embodies consistency. He has few health problems and solidly performed for four seasons at Michigan. He’s huge (315 pounds) and few doubt he’ll be anything short of very good for many years to come.
So was it a good pick? Only time will tell. The Dolphins’ offense was anemic last year, and while Long may help protect the quarterback and the run game, the team probably won’t improve significantly right away. There are certainly Dolphins fans griping about missing out on Darren McFadden, the explosive, do-it-all halfback out of Arkansas, or Matt Ryan, the potential franchise quarterback from Boston College.
But when you’re stuck — not privileged — with the No. 1 pick, you have to bet on the sure thing. That’s what the Dolphins wanted, and that’s what they’ll get out of Jake Long.