A week ago, life was easy for Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats. Touting its first AP Top 25 ranking in nearly two years, Northwestern sat atop the Big Ten Legends division behind stringent run defense and a dynamic dual-quarterback offense.
After a trip to Happy Valley, however, it’s a whole different story.
A 39-28 loss to Penn State left the Wildcats plummeting from the national spotlight, facing a bevy of questions as a difficult conference schedule rolls around.
Junior quarterback Kain Colter did not see a single snap under center against the Nittany Lions, while sophomore Trevor Siemian tallied a paltry 135 yards on 36 passing attempts. Meanwhile, Penn State running back Zach Zwinak gashed the Wildcats’ D for 121 rushing yards and a second quarter touchdown scamper.
Despite being favored, the ‘Cats looked completely out of their element in their sixth game. They will look to get back on track with a trip up to Minnesota (4-1, 0-1) Saturday. Northwestern will be vying for its third straight win at TCF Bank Stadium.
Scouting the opponent
Like Northwestern, the Golden Gophers swept their non-conference opponents to start 2012 before taking a 31-13 beat down from the Iowa Hawkeyes two weeks ago.
Second-year coach Jerry Kill heads a balanced Minnesota offense, averaging over 150 rushing and passing yards through its first five games. Senior QB MarQueis Gray could play Saturday after being shelved for a month with a high ankle sprain.
Gray is Minnesota’s answer to Kain Colter. He has put up a combined 27 touchdowns since 2010, with nine of those coming on the ground and an additional five coming as a receiver. Gray could be a serious problem for Northwestern’s defense, which has been plagued by over-pursuit all season.
The Golden Gophers rank 11th of 120 FBS schools in opposing passing efficiency and are allowing less than 20 points a game thus far. Sophomore DB Derrick Wells leads the team with two interceptions.
Match-ups to watch for
Northwestern CB Nick VanHoose vs. Minnesota WR A.J. Barker
“All the receivers in the Big Ten are good .... I’m looking forward to the challenge,” freshman corner Nick VanHoose said last week. He will certainly have a challenge on Saturday, lining up against speedy junior wideout A.J. Barker.
Barker has already churned out two 100-plus yard receiving days and has five touchdowns through five games. His vertical game poses a bad mismatch for a Wildcats secondary that has been beat by the big play all season.
If VanHoose and fellow cornerback Quinn Evans can key in on Barker, Minnesota quickly becomes one-dimensional. If Barker runs loose, however, it is tough to see Northwestern pulling out a win.
Northwestern’s O-line vs. DE D.L. Wilhite and DT Ra’Shede Hageman
The Wildcats have enjoyed a strong push up front in recent weeks and will need to win the battle at the line of scrimmage against a formidable Gophers pass rush. Junior tackle Ra’Shede Hageman has three sacks this season while senior end D.L. Wilhite has 4.5, good for second-best in the Big Ten. Senior Brian Mulroe will see time lined up against Hageman.
Northwestern operates with a distinct offensive rhythm, and Siemian will need a clean pocket to get things rolling.
Venric Mark vs. Minnesota’s front seven
Junior halfback Venric Mark continues to play at a high level, sitting seventh in FBS all-purpose rushing. With seven total scores in six games, Minnesota will have a tough time keeping him in check.
The Wildcats averaged a whopping 51.4 rushing attempts through five games but ran the ball just 25 times against Penn State. Look for Pat Fitzgerald and Co. to dial up the outside running game early on.
QB Kain Colter vs. QB Trevor Siemian
True, Colter and Siemian will be on the same sideline Saturday, but the use of Fitzgerald’s two-QB system will be eyed closely this weekend after an inefficient performance last week.
Northwestern’s offense makes an about-face depending on where Colter is lined up. Should he see time under center Saturday, the Wildcats become a more agile unit on the edge. With Colter split wide, however, Siemian can run a pro-style system.
Minnesota’s stout defense will likely call for mid-game adjustments. While Northwestern appears to be the better team here, misuse of personnel could have the Wildcats beating themselves.
Prediction
It’s hard to see Northwestern losing back-to-back games, especially against such a mismatched opponent. Even if he returns, a hobbled Gray and an average Gophers ground game won’t be enough to keep up with the fast-paced Wildcats.
Northwestern 30, Minnesota 21