After four weeks of cupcake opponents mixed with the occasional big-time non-conference game, Big Ten teams are finally ready to enter into conference play. It’s time for eight games of smash mouth football, followed by ridicule from SEC apologists when Ohio State inevitably reaches the BCS Championship game again.
Can anyone take down Ohio State this season? And where does Northwestern fit in to the equation? Here’s how the Big Ten stacks up in 2010.
THE FAVORITE: Anything less than a Rose Bowl berth for Brutus Buckeye would be a major disappointment. Ohio State has played in a BCS bowl game in seven of the past eight years, including three national title contests. Terrelle Pryor is a Heisman contender and Jim Tressel remains one of the best coaches in the entire country. Ohio State’s offense is probably the most well-rounded in the Big Ten, with weapons Dane Sanzenbacher and Devier Posey on the outside, and Dan “Boom” Herron and Brandon Saine in the backfield. But it’s not only the offense: besides maybe Alabama, the Buckeyes could be the most balanced team in the nation this year, featuring a tough, stingy defense, led by defensive end Cameron Heyward. Ohio State has been one of the most consistent programs in the nation over the past decade and this year’s squad has the Buckeye faithfully clamoring for national championship or bust.
Star player: QB Terrelle Pryor
Three key games: 10/16 @ Wisconsin, 11/20 vs. Iowa, 11/27 vs. Michigan
THE TOP CHALLENGERS: If not for an injury to quarterback Ricky Stanzi last season against Northwestern, I could very well be speaking of the Hawkeyes as the defending Big Ten champions. But with Stanzi injured last year, Iowa lost to Northwestern and then proceeded to lose a close game at the Horseshoe to Ohio State. So far this season, Stanzi has thrown nine touchdowns and only one interception. The aerial attack is buttressed by an efficient rushing game, led by Adam Robinson. In the Big Ten, teams must be able to run the football to compete and Iowa can do that as well as anyone. Defensively, pass rusher Adrian Clayborn is one of the top NFL draft prospects in the country; his presence on the defensive line should draw consistent double-teams all season. Even though the Hawkeyes have already dropped a non-conference game on the road to a solid Arizona team, they will still likely be the biggest challenger to the Buckeyes once again.
Star player: DE Adrian Clayborn
Three key games: 10/16 @ Michigan, 10/23 vs. Wisconsin, 11/20 vs. Ohio State
THE TOP CHALLENGERS: The Badgers are 4-0 after non-conference play, but their strength of schedule was unimpressive. Maybe I should be more impressed with a 70-3 victory over Austin Peay, but Arizona State was an extra point away from taking the Badgers to overtime in Madison. Wisconsin is the quintessential traditional Big Ten team: huge offensive linemen, power running game, and fundamentally strong linebackers. Scott Tolzien is also the typical Badger QB: a composed game manager that has success handing the ball off and throwing off play action. Meanwhile, the guy who he’ll be handing off to is one of the best backs in the entire country. John Clay is a Heisman contender in some circles and he is already on pace for a huge season. Interestingly enough, it seems that when expectations are high for the Badgers, they underperform; conversely, when expectations are low, they seem to overachieve. Wisconsin is expected to challenge for a Big Ten title this year and the legs of John Clay will be essential for a Rose Bowl run.
Star player: RB John Clay
Three key games: 10/16 vs. Ohio State, 10/23 @ Iowa, 11/20 @ Michigan
TEAMS THAT POTENTIALLY HAVE POTENTIAL: Last year, Michigan was undefeated entering Big Ten play with star quarterback Tate Forcier, who was treated like the next Wolverine legend. Forcier has been supplanted by Denard Robinson, who is the perfect quarterback for the Rich Rodriguez system. “Shoelace” is an early favorite for the Heisman, with 731 passing yards (four TDs and one INT) and 688 rushing yards (6 TDs) in four games. He had already racked up 128 yards on five carries last week before an injury in the first quarter took him out of the game. If Robinson can stay healthy, the Big Ten should be on high alert: Michigan could be back.
But one thing Robinson can’t do is play defense for the Wolverines, who gave up 37 points to FCS squad UMass in week three. If the Minutemen can put up 37 points on the Maize and Blue, then teams like Iowa and Ohio State should have no problem blasting their way through this defense. Defensive coordinator Greg Robinson is on a hot seat right now and Rich Rod may try to pass the blame on to his coordinator should the Wolverines fail this year. If Michigan is to have any shot at stopping the Big Ten’s best offenses, it will start up front with pass rusher Craig Roh and defensive tackle Mike Martin. The play of Jonas Mouton and Obi Ezeh will also be pivotal for stopping the run, but the big question is whether this team can stop a good quarterback. Last season, it was their downfall and unless Denard Robinson can continue to win games by himself, Michigan fans should be a bit concerned.
Star player: QB Denard Robinson
Three key games: 10/9 vs. Michigan State, 10/16 vs. Iowa, 11/27 @ Ohio State
TEAMS THAT POTENTIALLY HAVE POTENTIAL: More hype surrounds MSU this year than any season in recent memory. Is this the year that Sparty finally puts it all together and makes a run at the Big Ten title? Michigan State’s secondary is always a concern, and Notre Dame’s Dayne Crist already exposed the issue with a 369 yard, four TD passing performance earlier this season against MSU. Look for Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien to try to take advantage of the defensive backs when the two teams meet this week. Offensively, Kirk Cousins has emerged as a very serviceable quarterback last season, throwing for 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He’ll try to take MSU to the next level this year and he’ll have help from rushing tandem Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell, who collectively racked up 845 yards and 12 touchdowns in non-conference play. On the other side of the ball, Greg Jones is one of the best defenders in the nation, finally giving MSU some defensive grit. Freshman William Gholston could also make a big impact this season. This could be Sparty’s best chance for a Big Ten title in years, but with games against Wisconsin and Michigan over the next two weeks, MSU’s hopes could be derailed early.
Star player: LB Greg Jones
Three key games: 10/2 vs. Wisconsin, 10/9 @ Michigan, 10/30 @ Iowa
TEAMS THAT POTENTIALLY HAVE POTENTIAL: I think I finally know why Penn State schedules so many creampuffs for its non-conference schedule: when it faces a legitimate team, Joe Paterno’s crew gets demolished. Led by freshman quarterback Robert Bolden, the Nittany Lions racked up victories against Youngstown State, Kent State and Temple (despite Temple leading for much of the game). Meanwhile, Penn State traveled to Tuscaloosa, Ala., in week two and essentially sacrificed itself to the evil Nick Saban. Of course PSU is talented and should be able to play the Big Ten’s best in close games. PSU’s season will come down to whether they can run the ball successfully against some very good run defenses in the Big Ten. Evan Royster has been good at tailback for the Nittany Lions for a few years now, but he is off to a somewhat slow start in 2010 (only 297 rush yards so far). His play will be key for PSU, as Bolden will surely experience a learning curve this year.
Star player: RB Evan Royster
Three key games: 10/2 @ Iowa, 10/30 vs. Michigan, 11/13 @ Ohio State
TEAMS THAT POTENTIALLY HAVE POTENTIAL: The ‘Cats could quietly be a sleeper in the Big Ten, and I say that as a fully biased member of the Northwestern community. They have a very good quarterback, Dan Persa, who doesn’t make mistakes and uses his legs to make smart plays. Defensively, the front seven is pretty strong, led by All-Big Ten candidate linebacker Quentin Davie. And head coach Pat Fitzgerald is a Northwestern legend and one of the best.
However, there are a number of concerns for the Wildcats. The defensive backs are vulnerable and could easily be picked apart by a good quarterback. The running game, besides Persa, has been essentially non-existent this season. The big stretch for the ‘Cats comes at the end of the season, with games at Penn State, vs. Iowa (revenge will be on the Hawkeyes’ minds), vs. Illinois at Wrigley Field and at Wisconsin. Also keep an eye on the Homecoming game against Michigan State; NU could very well be 6-0 when Sparty rolls into town. And no Ohio State or Michigan on the schedule helps a lot too.
Star player: QB Dan Persa
Three key games: 10/23 vs. Michigan State, 11/6 @ Penn State, 11/13 vs. Iowa
THE BOTTOM FOUR: The Hoosiers have done their best Penn State impression so far this year, racking up monster non-conference victories against Towson, Western Kentucky and Akron. Now Indiana must play Michigan and Ohio State in back-to-back weeks to open the conference season. Last year, the Hoosiers played Michigan close at the Big House, but having to face Denard Robinson simply adds another dimension to this game. A bowl game might be in reach, but it will be an uphill climb, even though quarterback Ben Chappell has played very well so far this season (nine touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 72.4 percent completion record). The Hoosiers can’t become too one-dimensional and that means that Darius Willis will have to step up and elevate the ground game. If this offense can find some balance, then Indiana could very well be playing in a bowl game this winter.
Star player: QB Ben Chappell
Three key games: 10/2 vs. Michigan, 10/23 @ Illinois, 11/27 @ Purdue
THE BOTTOM FOUR: A loss to Missouri, plus victories over both Southern and Northern Illinois make up the Fighting Illini resume so far. Should we be impressed? Probably not. Illinois barely squeaked out a victory against NIU in week three and now Ron Zook’s squad has to take on Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State in consecutive weeks. Good luck. Besides having a last name that I cannot hope to pronounce, QB Nathan Scheelhaase is probably not the one to lead the University of Indiana back to the promised land. Mikel Leshoure is a good running back, but he won’t be enough to overcome the better defenses in the Big Ten. It will probably be a bowl-less season for the Illini, and many fans will likely call for the head of Ron Zook just three years after he took Illinois to the Rose Bowl.
Star player: RB Mikel Leshoure
Three key games: 10/9 @ Penn State, 10/30 vs. Purdue, 11/20 @ Northwestern (at Wrigley Field)
THE BOTTOM FOUR: Prior to the season, I thought Purdue could potentially be a middle-of-the-road Big Ten team with new quarterback Robert Marve, who transferred from Miami. Instead, the Boilermakers looked pitiful in a loss to Notre Dame on opening day, followed by close victories over Western Illinois and Ball State before losing to Toledo. If Purdue goes to a bowl after this season, it is officially proof that we have 486 bowl games too many. Ryan Kerrigan is one of the better defenders in the conference, but he can’t play also offense for the Boilermakers. I’m sure Purdue fans will be content to wait for basketball season, in which they will once again be a favorite to win the Big Ten and make a tournament run. Until then, it could get ugly on the gridiron.
Star player: DE Ryan Kerrigan
Three key games: 10/9 @ Northwestern, 10/30 @ Illinois, 11/13 @ Michigan State
THE BOTTOM FOUR: The Gophers are off to a horrific start to the season. After a close victory over Middle Tennessee in week one, Minnesota lost in week two to South Dakota (an FCS team that was just crushed by North Dakota State) and then proceeded to lose to USC and NIU. The Gophers actually played inspired football for a good deal of the game against the Trojans, but were ultimately dismantled. Adam Weber is a decent quarterback, but besides wide receiver MarQueis Gray, he just doesn’t have the talent around him to compete, especially with the loss of star wideout Eric Decker to the NFL. Gophers head coach Tim Brewster will likely be coaching for his job this season and his road to potential unemployment begins this week against the Northwestern Wildcats. If Minnesota wins more than two or three Big Ten games this fall, it will come as a pretty big surprise.
Star player: WR MarQueis Gray
Three key games: 10/2 vs. Northwestern, 10/16 @ Purdue, 11/13 @ Illinois