We’re on the brink of winter. It’s about time we start thinking about the coming basketball season and whether this will finally be the year Wildcats make the NCAA tournament. Looking solely at the strength of their schedule, and in particular the non-conference games, it looks increasingly like the Wildcats will have their work cut out for them.
Non-Conference Play: An Unnecessary Handicap
The non-conference slate kicks off November 12th at Northern Illinois University. Overall, it offers an unexciting slate of pushovers for the Wildcats to feast on. Playing in the tough Big Ten necessitates a certain level of schedule-padding, but Northwestern’s line-up of non-conference opponents is almost shamefully mediocre.
The season continues on the road in Texas before heading to Evanston for a five-game home stand where the ‘Cats will host Creighton and Georgia Tech, two big-name programs in transition. Creighton is a perennial NCAA tournament player looking to return after a 3-year absence with new coach Greg McDermott. In Georgia Tech, the ‘Cats will play a team struggling to replace Derrick Favors, the third overall pick in the NBA draft and one of last year’s most notable freshmen. Those two games are the most challenging of the non-conference offerings, but the Wildcats should still be favored in both, and a loss in either would be toxic for their NCAA tournament hopes.
A notable stretch will be when the Wildcats fly to New York to participate in the Holiday Festival at Madison Square Garden. While the stage might be big, the competition will be less than stellar: an opening game against St. Francis (NY) should be a cakewalk, and a second-round game against either St. John’s or Davidson College will follow. Both programs would present a challenge for the Wildcats. In St. John’s they should face a solid, if unimpressive, Big East program playing with a serious home-court advantage, and in Davidson, a solid program that is still suffering from an Elite Eight hangover after the departure of boy-wonder Stephen Curry.
A loss in New York wouldn’t help, but a sweep of the two games at the Garden could do the Wildcats some real good in building NCAA credibility. Mount St. Mary’s visits Evanston to close the non-conference schedule in another must-win.
Ultimately, Northwestern seems to have really handicapped itself with its non-conference schedule. It’s entirely possible the ‘Cats will be favored in every single game it plays up to the Big Ten opener, but they have given themselves no opportunity to record a signature win against a quality program to impress the tourney. As it stands, anything less than a 10-1 run will be a disappointment; any more than two losses and you can kiss the NCAA tournament hopes good-bye.
Early Big-Ten Slate: Out of the Frying Pan, Into the Fire
The Wildcats’ early conference schedule could not differ more starkly from their non-conference romp. They open against eighth-ranked Purdue in West Lafayette on New Year’s Eve. While the Boilermakers are missing star forward Robbie Hummel after a season ending ACL tear, they should still prove to be one of the Big Ten’s best. Four days later, second-ranked Michigan State comes to Evanston, with senior guard Kalin Lucas looking to improve after missing out on Sparty’s Final Four run with an injured Achilles tendon. Road games against 16th-ranked Illinois and Iowa and a home game against Indiana separate the ‘Cats from another clash against the Spartans in East Lansing on January 15th. Quite simply the Wildcats have to beat Iowa and Indiana, who should be Big Ten bottom-feeders and could use an upset in Champaign to keep the momentum going before they challenge the Spartans.
A home-stand against a Manny Harris-less Michigan, the Missouri Valley Conference’s SIU-Edwardsville (an oddly placed non-conference match) and No. 24 Wisconsin will be crucial in building momentum for the second-half of the season. Sweep these three games and the NCAA tournament watch can begin in earnest. A win in one of the three games against Purdue and Michigan State would also go a long way towards building the ‘Cats an at-large resume. The first half ends January 26th against Tubby Smith’s Minnesota team in Minneapolis, in another potential resume-builder.
Big-Ten Second Half: Must-Wins Against Also-Rans
While the first half of the Big Ten schedule is defined by chances for big wins against top 10 teams, the second half is largely filled with the games that can sink the Wildcat’s chances. Last season’s bid was derailed by losses to bottom-feeders Penn State and Iowa, and these ‘Cats will likely face the same challenge.
The second-half kicks off at home against fifth-ranked Ohio State, a likely loss, but from there, the outlook is rosy. A home game against Illinois on February 5th should be the biggest game of the year: televised on CBS, the Wildcats need to bring their A-game to establish a national reputation and get geared for a final run to the NCAAs.
The next two weeks find the ‘Cats on the road against Michigan, Penn State and Indiana, all winnable games, with one must-win at home against Iowa in the middle. A 3-1 or 4-0 stretch here is imperative. The last week of the season begins with a home effort against Penn State (must-win, sensing a theme?) then a trip to Madison to play a Wisconsin team in a similar bubble-position to Northwestern playing hard for their own berth. The regular season ends at home against Minnesota, and in all likelihood that game will be billed as one of the bigger impact bubble match-ups to end the season.
The Wildcats will likely need to win at least six of their final nine games to be over .500 in-conference; such a record should be enough to make the NCAAs, provided they don’t suffer a major non-conference meltdown. Here is where the weakness of the non-conference schedule will really hurt: a 9-9 or 8-10 Big Ten team that can point to a few early major victories can make a far more effective case for the tournament than a Wildcat team that simply didn’t self-destruct early. In all likelihood, it’ll be a make-or-break Big Ten tournament run for the Wildcats come March, in large part thanks to their tentativeness in November.