Why Fidel Castro's exit probably won't change Cuba much
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    A handy dandy guide to Latin America, by Ben Armstrong and Lara Kattan. Multimedia by Alex Campbell. Sources.

    Since Fidel Castro announced his resignation earlier this week, Americans have been swimming in a soup of Cold War history. Isn’t this what we’ve been waiting for? Who the hell is Raúl? What does this all amount to?

    What it amounts to, boys and girls, is, well…very little, actually.

    Fidel has become enigmatic in our culture – he’s a devil in fatigues to some, a rebel against American imperialism to others. He has outlasted countless ridiculous attempts on his life, over four decades of embargo and ten U.S. presidents. You gotta hand to the guy – he hasn’t given up easily.

    But what’s next for Cuba? The most widely accepted rumor is that Fidel’s brother, Raúl, is next in line for the dictatorship. He’s currently the acting “president” of Cuba, since taking over from his brother disappeared with tummy troubles a year and a half ago. He’s also the favorite to be picked by Cuba’s National Assembly on Feb. 24.

    While many might celebrate the ”great changes” coming to Cuba, we have to remember that Raúl is still a Castro. He has been portrayed as an alcoholic with a bloody streak to boot. Don’t forget that Raúl was carrying out executions (with Che Guevara – makes you rethink that t-shirt, eh?) while his brother was making speeches.

    Yes, Raúl might be open to negotiations with the U.S. and he might be willing to make an economic transition like China. Might, might, might. We’re not holding our breath.

    The White House is calling Raúl “dictator lite.” Bush has made numerous blanket statements that this is “the beginning of the democratic transition” and claiming that “the United States will help the people of Cuba realize the blessings of liberty.” This is as optimistic as it is vomtastic – and sounds frighteningly like recycled Iraq War rhetoric. Let’s be honest – America’s brand of “liberty” probably sits about as well with Raúl as is it did with his brother.

    Fidel incites a lot of mixed reactions – he was big on universal health care and education, but he hated homosexuals and put severe limits on free speech. He’s a relic of the Cold War, but he’s inspired a whole new generation of socialist thinkers in Latin America, including Evo Morales and Hugo Chavez. He’s gone, but his legacy won’t die. It’s fitting, if you think about it.

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