This past Saturday was not just a big day for Northwestern (suck it, Hawkeyes), but also a big day for Congress: the House of Representatives narrowly passed a health care reform bill which includes the much talked about public option. Final tally: 220-215. By Jove, the health care debate is finally over!
Well, not quite. The Senate still has to vote on their own bill and then the two houses have to get together over beer and pizza and reconcile the two bills. They then send the new consensus bill to each house to be voted on and then it’s off to the President’s desk to be signed into law. The big problem with all of this is that first part: the Senate has to vote on their own bill. Seeing as how the Senate isn’t even scheduled to debate the issue this week, it might be a while before that happens.
But when they do finally get to the debate, the floor of the Senate will turn into a battlefield of banter, a fight for the policy-pennant. Okay, enough of that. Here are the X-Factors for this Super Bowl of legislative throw-downs:
Sen. Max Baucus (D-Montana) — Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee
The Senate Finance Committee cranked out a health care reform a while back that did not include a public option. Otherwise, it’s a similar bill to the one just passed in the House: it has mandatory coverage, creates a health insurance exchange and, unlike the House bill, it includes a tax on high-priced insurance plans. As the flag-bearer for one of the two major bills in the Senate, Baucus will definitely be a key player in this match-up as he aims to keep a public option out of a final bill.
Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) — Chairman of Senate HELP committee
The other main bill in the Senate comes from Tom Harkin’s Heath, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. It contains many similar (if not identical) provisions to the finance committee’s bill, except for one major inclusion: a public option. Harkin will be one of the several Senate liberals out on the field fighting to get a public option into the final bill.
Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nevada) — Senate Majority Leader
This guy has a contract-extension with his home state on the line. He’s also made some big promises, like the inclusion of a public option in the bill and said bill being on Obama’s desk by the end of the year. So basically, the future of his political career is riding on a Hail-Mary pass to a receiver in double coverage. But instead of launching the ball down field, he’ll be calling all the Dems’ shots on the sideline and working hard for those 60 coveted votes.
Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Connecticut)
Don’t panic if you hear footsteps a comin’, it’s only Joe Lieberman and his filibuster. The former Democrat who supposedly caucuses with the Democrats in order to give them a filibuster-proof 60 seats has threatened in the past few days to filibuster any legislation in the Senate that includes a public option. If that happens, good luck to Harry Reid on getting a bill fleshed out by winter break.
Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine)
The pioneer of the “trigger option,” Snowe is an important moderate player in this game, and a vote that Democrats got in the Finance Committee and desperately want on the floor. Though she may be the only Republican senator to vote yes, her assent would still be a trophy of Senate Democrats.
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) — Senate Minority Leader
Mitch McConnell is to Harry Reid as Mohammed Ali is to George Foreman. Not really, but he is definitely the man at Reid’s opposing corner in this congressional rumble. McConnell will be vying to keep the Dems from reaching the filibuster-proof 60 votes, and with Lieberman as his cutman, he might have an easier time than he thought.
American Medical Association and AARP
These two associations, which represent doctors and old people respectively, threw the biggest endorsements since Oprah endorsed Obama back in ’08, expressing their support for the House’s health care bill last week. It’ll be interesting to see if either or both take a stance on anything in the Senate and if endorsements from the biggest providers and consumers of medical care can push a bill to the President’s desk.
Congressional Budget Office (Director Doug Elmendorf)
By the end of this week, this non-partisan group might just have numbers on the cost and impact of Reid’s plan (which is gleaned off of the Finance and HELP committees’ bills). These numbers could sway moderate senators one way or the other on a final bill.
Public Option
Probably the biggest player on this list, and it ain’t even human. The national health care debate revolves around the possibility of a government-created health insurance option that individuals could enroll in, and the Senate debate is no different. Whether it’s the trigger-option, the state-by-state opt out plan or a full-fledged public option, be sure to expect this X-factor to have the biggest impact on the passage (or lack thereof) of a Senate health care bill.