Four candidates vie for their party’s nomination at the convention. There’s backdoor dealing, secret negotiations and a rabid smear campaign. Finally, one candidate emerges with the party’s nomination after days of grueling work.
That actually describes none of the most recent party conventions, but rather the season 6 finale of the West Wing (I consider it to be the last good episode of the show). The idea of the convention as a nominating process has fallen by the wayside. Now it’s just a formality, a place where a candidate can show his family side, the party can trot out the old heroes and the occasional bright young star can emerge. Because the election season begins so early and the primaries happen long before the conventions, each party has its ticket set in stone. However, if you thought the process was already moving too quickly, you won’t like that some states want to move the primaries up even more.
California lawmakers recently announced that they want to move their state’s primaries four months earlier to Feb. 5, the earliest possible date. They join the ranks of Florida, Michigan, New Mexico, New Jersey and twelve others who want to move their primaries to the fifth. Adding in the eight states that are holding their primaries that day, there would be 20 states on that “Super-Duper Tuesday”. The nomination race would effectively be over before Valentine’s Day.
Under the current system, the first primary is the Iowa caucus, held next year on Jan. 14. Five days later, Nevada Democrats vote, followed by the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 22, the South Carolina Democrat primary on Jan. 29 and the South Carolina Republican primary on Feb. 2. Then it’s open season, though there has been a pretty even distribution of primaries to allow candidates enough time to raise funds and campaign in each state.
The big day used to be Super Tuesday, a day in early March when a number of states hold their primaries together. Back in 1992, Bill Clinton resurrected his campaign by sweeping most Southern states on Super Tuesday, catapulting him to the nomination and the White House. In 2000, Bush and Gore both used convincing wins on Super Tuesday to knock their challengers out of the race.
So, why does it matter that half of the nation’s primaries might be done on February 5? It spells trouble for fringe candidates or anyone without funds. It takes money and lots of it to compete in any primary, let alone the behemoth that is California. Candidates benefit by being able to compete in small states like Iowa and New Hampshire first: There are fewer television ads to buy, fewer hands to shake and fewer opportunities for a YouTube-worthy blunder. A win in one of those states can propel a candidate to stardom.
Remember in 2004, when Howard Dean was hot shit until he lost in Iowa? Then he screamed, all the Deaniacs signed off their blogs and John Kerry picked up the nomination.
Candidates like Kerry need these early primaries to build momentum and pick up supporters (aka donors). If 25 states hold their primaries over the course of less than a month, only the richest candidates will be able to survive with the nominations. Right now, that would likely peg Hillary Clinton against John McCain. The real trouble is if California moves their primary. California, with an economy larger than most nations and the largest population in the US, has the power to single-handedly turn the presidential race. If a candidate picks up the nominations in California, they’re practically unstoppable come the convention. However, it’s going to take an enormous war chest to compete in Los Angeles, let alone the whole state. That means eliminating Dennis Kucinich, Bill Richardson and most other candidates. They’ll be out of the race faster than a rolling blackout.
Ever get sick of the campaigns, especially when they start as early as they did this year (bear in mind it’s almost two years before we vote for president and the field is already crowded)? Well, the early primaries mean that it’s going to be a two-way race even earlier. It also means our race is less about the ideas and more about the benjamins. Which, while good publicity for Puff Daddy, isn’t so great for democracy.