North by Northwestern

Back in November, we here at NBN Sports tried to predict the future of Northwestern’s men’s and women’s basketball to determine whether both teams would qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Now, five games into Big Ten play, there is a lot to re-evaluate. Still chasing that elusive first NCAA Tournament bid, the men’s team is off to one of the best starts in program history – but was barely tested by its cupcake non-conference schedule. The women’s team also got off to a phenomenal start, but has recently slipped in conference play. It’s time to look into our crystal balls once again, and predict, will both Northwestern basketball teams go dancing this season?

Hayden King says “No”

Men’s: 21-10, NIT Second Round

Unless Northwestern can run the table in the Big Ten Tournament (highly unlikely), it will have to be deemed worthy of an at-large bid by the selection committee. Last year, Ohio State (23-10, 11-7 B1G) and Indiana (20-13, 9-9 B1G) were the last of seven Big Ten teams selected for the NCAA Tournament. If the Wildcats play well for the rest of the season, they'll finish in the range of nine to 11 conference wins. However, those Indiana and Ohio State teams had four and two wins, respectively, against ranked competition. NU has zero, and three of its four remaining games against top-25 teams are on the road, with the solitary home game being perhaps its toughest matchup: Michigan State. Without a signature win, the 'Cats will find themselves in the NIT, which I only recently found out does not actually stand for "Not Invited Tournament."

Women’s: 22-8, NCAA Round of 32

After starting the season with 10 straight victories, the Wildcats have dropped two straight games and four of their last six. To make matters worse, their next two games are against top-10 opponents Ohio State and Maryland. Despite these recent woes, Northwestern still has Nia Coffey and Maggie Lyon, who could probably drag a team of NBN writers to the NCAA Tournament. They may not finish in the top-25, but a tournament bid is hardly in jeopardy yet.

Andy Brown says “No”

Men’s: 20-11, NIT Second Round

Weirdly enough, NU men's basketball is on the precipice of history and still without a quality win. For the 'Cats to conceivably have a shot at March Madness, they will have to take advantage of opportunities to beat six middling Big Ten teams (other than Michigan State) at home. Should NU win all of those games and pull off a couple of road upsets (read: quality wins), it would finish the regular season with a 22-9 record. Conference tournament performance notwithstanding, that would probably be enough. Probably. Will they do all of that? The health of Alex Olah's foot may decide.

Women’s: 22-8, NCAA Round of 32

The women's team, however, finds itself in a precarious position after getting mauled at the hands of Purdue and Michigan State last week. Several have pointed to NU's lack of scoring depth contributing to its sudden slide, but in their 85-62 win over Nebraska on January 3, four 'Cats scored 81 of the team's 85 points. So clearly that's not the issue. Rather, it's poor shooting and lost turnover battles (not really rebounding woes) that have doomed NU recently, and there is simply too much (starting) talent on this team for that to persist. I fully expect Joe McKeown's squad to get back on track soon and secure a top-5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Rob Schaefer says “Yes”

Men’s: 23-8, NCAA Round of 64

You can call me crazy, and you're probably right, but I'll be the lone optimist on this one. I won't delude myself into thinking the Wildcats can run the table in the Big Ten tournament, but they'll be on the bubble, and finishing with single digits in the loss column while pulling an upset or two (something Northwestern has always been good for) in conference play could be enough for an at-large bid, despite their cupcake-laden out of conference schedule. NU has been competitive against top-tier programs even with Alex Olah out, and when he returns, he could vault the 'Cats into the top half of the Big Ten standings. Maybe. Please.

Women’s: 23-7, NCAA Round of 32

I'll say yes for the women as well, although I think it's time we start asking serious questions about their candidacy. The talent is there. Nia Coffey is having the season of her life, Ashley Deary has proven herself to be one of the premier guards in the Big Ten, and Maggie Lyon and Christen Inman have been steady. The problem is, there hasn't been much else in terms of meaningful contributions from other players. Coach Joe McKeown will have to find some balance in this team in the second half of the season, and I have faith that he will. There was a reason for the hype surrounding this team entering the season, and once the ‘Cats find a way to play up to better competition, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with once again.

Will Fischer says “No”

Men’s: 19-12, no postseason tournament

Northwestern’s 15-3 start has exceeded my wildest dreams. The Wildcats took care of business in non-conference play and have won three of their first five Big Ten games, something they haven't done since 1968. But NU still has a long and dreaded conference slate ahead. The grind of the Big Ten will exhaust the 'Cats, proving to be too much for a squad that really doesn't have much depth. NU will finish on the bubble, just short of the NCAA Tournament due to a lack of quality wins and a pitiful non-conference strength of schedule. Coach Chris Collins will make a statement and decline a NIT invite (just like he declined a CBI invite last year), motivating his team to focus on making history next year.

Women’s: 21-9, NCAA Round of 32

After starting the year a hot 11-1, Northwestern has cooled off and dropped three of its first four in the Big Ten. With games upcoming against No. 5 Ohio State and No. 8 Maryland, the going will only get tougher. But the quartet of Nia Coffey, Maggie Lyon, Ashley Deary and Christen Inman is just too good for the ‘Cats to keep losing games. NU will eventually right the ship, get back on track and return to the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year. This time, NU will win its first tournament game before falling in the round of 32.

Max Goodman says “No”

Men’s: 22-9, NIT Second Round

The men’s team played extraordinary well to start the season, and, much like the women’s team, NU has since hit some roadblocks, exploiting various flaws. With the injury to 7-footer Alex Olah, a team that already lived and died by the three-pointer has placed an even bigger burden on the shoulders of Aaron Falzon, Bryant McIntosh and of course senior Tre Demps (who absolutely is still thinking about his 3-for-17 shooting performance in the loss against Ohio State). Evidently, the Wildcats can be a force when they make their shots. But with injuries, a youthful core and a rough schedule ahead, it is again looking like a “next year” scenario for the ‘Cats.

Women’s team: 20-10, NCAA Round of 64

The ‘Cats roared out of the gates, and junior star Nia Coffey as well as senior sharpshooter Maggie Lyon have led the charge, both averaging over 15 points per game. But once they reached the Big Ten portion of the schedule, so many aspects of their game have gone awry that it is hard to find a scenario where they can bounce back and play deep into the NCAA Tournament. The past two losses for NU have been telling, as the ‘Cats turned it over 39 times over in the two contests while registering abysmal three-point field-goal percentages - shooting just 11.5 percent against Michigan State and 17.6 percent against Purdue. Coach Joe McKeown has a lot of work to do, and, reasonably speaking, I can’t foresee the ‘Cats making it past the opening round of the tournament.

Jason Mast says “No”

Men’s: 21-10, NIT Second Round

The most painful part of NU’s season has been its success - a nagging reminder of what might have been with a healthy Vic Law and a full season from Alex Olah. Yeah, the ‘Cats are 15-3, off to their best start since the 1930s. Northwestern’s record is a product of both an emergent team and the second easiest non conference schedule of any Power 5 school. The Wildcats have laid eggs in their only difficult tests against Maryland and Ohio State. Maybe with Law and Olah it’d be different, but this March expect more NIT and a lot less NCAA.

Women’s: 23-7, NCAA Round of 32

Three losses in four games and suddenly Northwestern’s best sports team is falling off the brink of the NCAA Tournament? Relax. In a year where a redshirt freshman quarterback led an underdog team to No. 13 in the College Football Playoff rankings and an upstart men’s basketball roster won 13 of their first 14 games, it’s easy to think the team that actually played in the postseason last year would be even better - but it is also easy to panic when they struggle. However, this is still Nia Coffey in the paint, still Maggie Lyon behind the arch and still Joe McKeown screaming from the sideline. The Wildcats will be back in the Tournament this year, possibly at an even higher seed than last year’s No. 7.