Northwestern opens its Big Ten season on the road at Minnesota this Saturday, but the two teams could not be more different. Minnesota head coach Tim Brewster enters the weekend on a seat hot enough to make Satan sweat, while Pat Fitzgerald continues to be the university’s public darling and gridiron general. While Northwestern shares a 4-0 record with four other Big Ten teams, Minnesota is the sole inhabitant of the conference cellar at 1-3.
Northwestern has a 35-50-3 record against Minnesota all-time, but the more recent battles haven’t lacked in energy. In 2007, Northwestern stopped Minnesota’s gamble of a two-point conversion in overtime, winning 49-48; Mike Kafka ran for a then-Big Ten quarterback single-game rushing record in 2008 (217 yards, recently broken twice by Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson); last year, Minnesota came away with a victory at Ryan Field that left Northwestern at 2-2 and sent Wildcat Nation into a panic.
Despite the Gophers’ setbacks, Coach Fitz isn’t downplaying their potential and spent this week complimenting coach Brewster and his crew. Fitz may take the higher ground in his statements to the media, but we won’t.
Northwestern offense vs. Minnesota defense
The debate around the water cooler isn’t so much whether or not Minnesota’s defense is bad — it’s the degree to which it’s bad. Minnesota has given up 16 touchdowns and the conference’s highest points per game average, both last in the Big Ten. Dan Persa & Co. should have a field day against Minnesota’s green pass coverage. With the passing offense at full tilt, Persa should have no problem slicing through their coverage.
Minnesota has only produced two sacks this entire season, or half of Northwestern defensive end Vince Browne’s total, but the offensive line will have to key in on containing defensive tackle Jewhan Edwards, who leads the team with six tackles-for-loss, and must improve their pass blocking; the offensive line has given up a conference-worst eleven sacks.
The running backs must thank their lucky stars for Minnesota. There won’t be another opportunity as ripe as the one now for co-starters Mike Trumpy and Jacob Schmidt to solidify their hold as heads of the running back committee, or for transient tailbacks like Arby Fields and Stephen Simmons to restate their case for more carries. With the Minnesota defense giving up 6.4 yards per carry, production is open for the taking.
Minnesota offense vs. Northwestern defense
Unlike their defense, Minnesota’s offense does have a few weapons on which to rely. Senior quarterback Adam Weber is quietly compiling a fine senior season, keying in on receiver Da’Jon McKnight, tight end Eric Lair and quarterback-turned-wide-receiver MarQueis Gray. Northwestern’s pass coverage can’t afford to let any one of the three let loose.
Minnesota’s run game is led by Duane Bennett, with DeLeon Eskridge in a backup role and FB Jon Hoese in short yardage and goal-line situations. Collectively, running backs have averaged 3.9 yards per carry, which is vanilla, but Northwestern’s run defense hasn’t merited anyone’s lauded praise just yet.
The battle in the trenches will determine who comes away the winner in this match-up. Weber isn’t going to shoot himself in the foot, and Northwestern’s secondary will be torched all day if Weber is given enough time to analyze his looks. The ‘Cats’ defensive line has been the most consistent unit this season, so putting the heat up front is crucial to avoid a potential shootout at TCF Bank Stadium.
Special teams
Success on returns will only depend on who screws up the least. Minnesota and Northwestern are eerily matched in average yards per return, so neither team should anticipate any game-changing moments here. Should one team yield a return into opposing territory and beyond, it may be just enough to tip the scales in the other’s favor.
In fact, the special teams match-up against Minnesota may be the most boring of the year. Both punters are near-even and both kickers are in a slump. Whoever happens to find the cool side of the pillow this weekend should give his team an appreciable advantage, but don’t hold your breath here.
Prediction
Northwestern reaches 5-0 by smacking down Minnesota 33-27. The defense isn’t going to clamp down any much better for either team, but the offenses will keep this game interesting and have people in Evanston’s Buffalo Wild Wings sticking around until the end. The defensive line will have their moments, the secondary will be exposed at least twice yielding huge yardage and at least one breakaway touchdown, and “maybe-maybe-not” kicker Stefan Demos will keep the boat even keel for at least another week.