What happened last time
This is the first of two meetings between Michigan and Northwestern this season. Michigan got the better of NU in last year's game, prevailing 75-66 and holding off the ‘Cats' late comeback. Then-sophomore Drew Crawford and then-freshman JerShon Cobb combined for 30 points in that matchup last February and the now-departed point guard Michael "Juice" Thompson scored a team-high 17 points.
What’s changed since then
As noted before, Juice Thompson graduated from Northwestern last year and the team has sorely missed his offensive production. Still, freshman guard Dave Sobolewski has filled in nicely at point guard and has the third best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country. Michigan’s big loss was guard Darius Morris, who is now a member of the Los Angeles Lakers. Morris had a nice game in the last meeting for the Wolverines, but has since been replaced by freshman guard Trey Burke. Burke has been key for Michigan all season and leads the team with five assists per game.
Key Matchup: Dave Sobolewski vs. Trey Burke
The first year point guards have been crucial to their respective teams all season, and Wednesday’s matchup should be no different. However, while the two may seem similar at first glance, they actually have different roles and will look to perform in different ways. Michigan's Burke is more of a scorer and will look to score some points early in an effort to make the Northwestern defense focus less on star Wolverine Tim Hardaway, Jr. While Burke has been a good distributor in creating shots for his teammates, he needs to limit the turnovers as he’s averaging 2.6 per game. Sobolewski, meanwhile, is more careful with the ball and cannot afford to play sloppily against Michigan. At times the freshman can fill up the basket, but his mantra has been “pass first” all season. He’ll look to limit the turnovers and provide easy shots for scorers John Shurna and Drew Crawford and hopefully push the tempo of the game. Sobolewski had an off game against Illinois and if the ‘Cats want to pull off the road upset this week, he’ll need to step up.
What to look for
Look for a fast-paced high-scoring game as both teams are guard-oriented and rely on their offense to win. For Northwestern that means getting open shots for Crawford and Shurna - something they failed to do in the second half against Illinois. NU’s half-court offense has struggled at times this season, so it’s important for the 'Cats to get some steals and turn them into easy fast break points. Michigan will have a similar game plan and look to set up perimeter scorers such as senior guard Zack Novak and sophomore forward Evan Smotrycz. Smotrycz is a big man who likes to shoot from the outside (similar to NU's own Shurna), and it will be big for the Wolverines to get him going so they can open up their offense. Overall, this works out well for Northwestern. The 'Cats do not fare well against teams with good, big men, and Michigan doesn't really have that. And even though there isn’t one player for the defense to focus on, the main goal will be to stop Michigan’s outside shooters, who are the ultimate key to the Wolverines' success.
Where Northwestern will stand afterwards
With a win, Northwestern would improve to 2-2 in Big Ten play and still be in position to make a run at an NCAA Tournament berth. It would also be a nice morale boost after the classic Cardiac 'Cats-style loss against Illinois last week. If Northwestern beats Michigan, it would take the pressure off of the team to go on a big winning streak to try to qualify for the tournament. Still, I see Northwestern losing this one to fall to 1-3 in conference play. That puts the ‘Cats in a hole, and it will not get any easier from here. The Spartans come to Evanston on Saturday followed by a road trip to Madison to face Wisconsin. Northwestern will need to win at least one of those games and get on a winning streak to still make the NCAA tournament. Right now, I have Northwestern disappointing again and finishing the season in the NIT.