After enduring back-to-back losses for the third time this season, Northwestern basketball is reeling. The team's most recent defeats to Wisconsin and Minnesota may have been the ugliest losses of the year — each was by 20 points or more and neither opponent ranked in the Top 25. Heading into their matchup against Purdue at Welsh-Ryan this Saturday, the 'Cats should be at their most desperate to avoid sending their season down the drain before February hits.
What happened last time:
The two squads matched up in their Big Ten season opener, the only time the two played each other last season. The Wildcats were off to an impressive 9-1 start in their non-conference schedule but received a rude awakening upon entering conference play at the hands of senior Purdue guard E’Twaun Moore. Fifteen of Purdue’s first 19 points came from three-pointers by Moore, with the five shots tying his career-high in triples in just over six minutes of play. A balanced Northwestern offensive attack kept the team in the game despite Moore’s offensive barrage but three buckets on four possessions from junior guard Lewis Jackson helped push the Purdue lead to 12 at the half.
Then-senior Juice Thompson and then-junior Luka Mirkovic (surprisingly enough) spearheaded a pair of Wildcat rallies in the second half, but the team never got closer than five points each time and Purdue pulled away for an 82-69 win. Moore led Purdue to victory, finishing with 31 points and seven threes. The loss marked the beginning of a three-game Northwestern losing streak to start Big Ten play.
What’s changed since then:
The offensive explosion by Mirkovic would be high on any Northwestern fan's wish list this season, but it would be best for them not to hold their collective breaths. He is averaging 1.9 points per game in Big Ten play this season (down from 7.7 ppg last season), his minutes have significantly dwindled and he has gone scoreless in his last three contests. Sampson’s hair, meet Luka’s mask.
Bill Carmody won’t have to face nightmares of all seven of Moore’s threes on loop this season. Moore, along with power forward JaJuan Johnson — a Big Ten Player of the Year, Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and First Team All-American — have each graduated and coincidently are still teammates with the Boston Celtics. The third portion of the three-headed monster that was supposed to catapult Purdue to their first Final Four since 1980 is redshirt senior forward Robbie Hummel, who missed the showdown with Northwestern and all of last season because he tore his right ACL for the second time in eight months during preseason. Hummel has picked up right where he left off before his knee injuries, leading the Boilermakers in scoring (15.4 ppg) and rebounding (6.2 rpg). He has also taken nearly as many shots as anyone on the team.
Key matchup: Alex Marcotullio vs. D.J. Byrd
These guys fill the same role — they come off the bench and can energize their respective teams to victory. Marcotullio was the lone (and I mean lone) bright spot for the Wildcats in their loss to Minnesota, especially because his performance indicated that he is now healthy. He provides defensive intensity when he enters games and is a dangerous three-point shooter.
Even though Hummel dominates Purdue’s offensive touches, Byrd is their best volume scorer. He has been second in the conference in points per 40 minutes since Big Ten play began and his strength and athleticism could prove troublesome for Northwestern. When he enters the game, the Wildcats cannot lose track of him and must limit his shot opportunities. He is prone to getting into foul trouble, so Northwestern’s best bet may be to attack him on the offensive end.
What to look for:
How short of a leash will Bill Carmody keeps point guard Dave Sobolewski on? Sobolewski has played admirably since being thrust into the starting role as a freshman, especially considering he is replacing a Wildcat legend in Juice Thompson. He has frequently logged a full 40 minutes on the court without another pure point guard backing him up and ranks behind only John Shurna in minutes played this season. Perhaps all this time playing against such high level competition has started to wear on Sobolewski, who has not generated an impressive scoring performance since his 20-point outing against Penn State on New Year’s Day. His game management skills have also deteriorated, as he has started to turn the ball over at a much higher rate (seven times in the past two games). Sobo's assist-to-turnover ratio was his saving grace when he wasn't scoring, so if that goes out the window, look for a reinvigorated Alex Marcotullio to get his chance at running the point on Saturday.
Where we'll stand afterwards, win or loss:
Northwestern sure hasn't made things easy. Injuries have led to serious depth problems, which have contributed to the cold streak, but that will not get the 'Cats off the hook when the NCAA tournament selection committee makes its decisions in March. It’s been said before, but the time is now for the Wildcats to start stockpiling wins in order to make their case.
After consecutive blowout losses, Northwestern cannot afford another poor showing, especially now that they return home. A win against a Purdue team in a (relatively) down year is a step in the right direction with Nebraska coming to Evanston next Thursday — an absolute must-win. A loss will put them at 2-6 in conference play and into a hole that — with the Big Ten’s depth this season — may be too large to climb out of.