When the Purdue Boilermakers come into town Saturday, it might seem like the publicity is unmerited. The game is going to be broadcast on ESPN2, yet Purdue and Northwestern are just 7th and 8th in the Big Ten, respectively. Each team recently reached 10 losses on the season.
But records can be deceiving. Purdue started the year with a few bad losses against Bucknell, Oregon State and Eastern Michigan. Since then, they have bounced back for a respectable 4-4 Big Ten record, given that five of the six teams above them are nationally ranked.
Northwestern may have just a 3-6 conference record, but the Wildcats have played six ranked teams in that span. This run culminated with their second time going up against No. 1 Michigan, which ended in a 68-46 defeat Wednesday.
Despite the final score, the ‘Cats did not play terribly. Michigan simply shot lights out. But after two straight road losses, Northwestern is eager to come home and turn things around.
The Boilermakers have reason to be hungry for a win as well. After taking a 97-60 drubbing on their home floor from No. 3 Indiana, they’ll be looking for redemption at Welsh-Ryan Arena.
It’s going to take a solid effort in several key areas to hold off Purdue.
Slow down A.J. Hammons
The 7-foot, 280-pound freshman had his coming out party in the loss to Indiana. He sized up Hoosiers star Cody Zeller for 30 of Purdue’s 60 points. Hammons also controlled the paint with five blocks and added five boards for good measure.
Despite his size, Hammons runs the floor like a guard. On several different occasions, he broke loose in transition and threw down some ferocious jams.
If the ‘Cats expect to contain him, freshman center Alex Olah will have to run the floor better than he has all year. If he can’t do it, redshirt freshman and second-string center Mike Turner will have to take over. Yet Northwestern can't fall back on Turner, who tends to fall into foul trouble very quickly. The pressure will be on the 7-foot Olah, as he is the only one who can match up with Hammons pound-for-pound.
Find Reggie Hearn
Someone needs to locate the Reggie Hearn that has been the team’s consistent scorer all year. Through his first 18 games, he scored fewer than 10 points in just two of them. Now, he has put up single-digits in both of the last two losses.
These are two teams that don’t score a lot of points, and when the 'Cats get in a slow-paced game, they tend to put up horrific shooting numbers. Hearn needs to be the one to step up and hit a shot when the team is struggling, because he is the best on the team at creating his own jump shot.
Convert easy buckets
Against Michigan on Wednesday, the Wildcats' offense struggled with free throws and lay-ups. In the second half against the Wolverines, Northwestern cut the deficit to 40-31, but they killed their chances of a comeback by missing three straight free throws.
After that, they could not finish at the rim. Backdoor cuts, pick-and-rolls and baseline drives were getting the Wildcats to the hole, but they couldn’t take the lid off the basket. Had they converted these golden opportunities, the 'Cats may have had a chance to pull off the upset.
It’s often the team that does the little things that picks up the win. Northwestern is 10th in the conference in free-throw percentage. One of the two teams that shoots worse is Purdue. If they take care of business where it should be easiest, the 'Cats will put themselves in great position to win.
Prediction
Hammons will be a load down low, and senior D.J. Byrd will be tough to contain on the perimeter. The ‘Cats will come out strong in front of the home crowd that they haven’t seen in a week, but it won’t be enough.
Purdue 63, Northwestern 58