Nothing to do on election night besides watch the numbers come in and frantically pack everything you own just in case you need to move to Canada tomorrow? Join NBN Politics as we pretend to be pundits and predict this year’s electoral map.
Our map
After a 2-1 vote, this is our official prediction of tonight's election results.
Click the map to create your own at States to watch
Florida
Libby: Although the race has definitely tightened up a bit in the Sunshine State, I think early voting will push Clinton over the top. Despite initial concerns that turnout among Black voters would be lower than in previous years, numbers surged dramatically over the weekend, perhaps due to President Obama’s multiple visits to the state. Combined with a record number of Hispanic voters participating in early voting, I don’t think Trump has a chance.
Trevor: While early voting numbers look good for Clinton, I remain pessimistic about her chances there. Expect Trump to dominate Clinton with Election Day voters – a recent CBS poll showed him winning day-of voters by 16 percentage points, and that same poll also suggests that Trump voters are much more enthusiastic about voting on Tuesday than Clinton voters are. 81 percent of Trump voters voting on Election Day said they “can’t wait to vote,” compared to just 58 percent of Clinton voters. I think some unenthusiastic Hillary voters will get complacent after seeing the early voter numbers, but Trump supporters will flock to the polls (hopefully only one time each) in hopes of Making America Great Again.
Brock: I think I’m going to agree with Libby here. Florida will be close, as always, but Clinton will likely eek out a win. This will be thanks, in no small part, to a surge of Hispanic voters, who, according to polls, will vote overwhelmingly for Clinton and against Trump. More people have voted early in Florida than in any state in the nation and the early votes have already surpassed the final vote totals from the hotly contested 2000 presidential election.
Nevada
Libby: Given Trump’s experience in Atlantic City, I don’t think Nevada is going to take a gamble on the Republican nominee. According to FiveThirtyEight, most Nevadans vote early – good news for Clinton who holds the early-voting lead. While the polls still suggest a close race, I think early voting will indicate a strong #HillYes for the Democratic nominee.
Trevor: I side with Libby on this one. The early voters look like they heavily favor Clinton, and I think that will be enough to send Clinton over the edge in this crucial state. Harry Reid’s impressive GOTV machine got tons of pro-Clinton Hispanic voters casting their ballots early, and as he so eloquently put it: “Looks like Trump got his wall after all. A wall of beautiful voters.”
Brock: I’m also seeing a blue Nevada. The Silver State has been notorious for polling errors over the past few years, and I think Democrats will out-perform their polls this year. However, there are a lot of non-college educated white voters in Nevada, and that’s a demographic that Trump is doing better with than past Republicans. It could still be a close race.
North Carolina
Libby: I think North Carolina is going to be one of the most competitive states this year – definitely one to watch. Although Clinton leads in early voting, which seems to be a common theme, the race is essentially tied. If Black turnout is high, like it was in 2008 for President Obama, I think this race will go her way. If not, Trump’s high levels of support among white voters in the state might push him to victory.
Trevor: I see Trump’s last minute push in North Carolina as being enough to get him the state’s 15 electoral votes. While it looked like a solidly blue state a few weeks ago, Trump’s numbers there have shot up recently. Again, Clinton leads in early voting, but comparative data suggests that she isn’t doing as well as Obama did in 2012. I expect Trump to pull away with this one to keep the election almost as close as it can get.
Brock: This could be a real nail-biter. If we look at the early voting numbers, Black turnout seems to be down from 2012 (and Mitt Romney won North Carolina in 2012!). But we also know that college-educated white voters are leaning towards Clinton this year, while a majority went for Romney in 2012. The question is: will that be enough for Clinton to offset the likely dip in turnout among Black voters?