A month into the baseball season, teams have settled into their mid-season rhythm. Some teams are off to hot starts, and some preseason favorites are struggling in the first month. Don’t put too much stock into the first month of the season. There are always teams that start off hot and end up finishing in the bottom of the division, and teams that start off bad that will be major factors later in the season. Teams stocked with young talent like the Marlins will be factors all season. Teams using three no-name pitchers like the Padres won’t be. It’s a long season, and chances are, the teams that were expected to be good will be there in the end, so I don’t let one month change my opinions much. If it’s June and your team is still sucking, it could be panic time. Or if you’re a Washington Nationals fan, panic time was opening day.
AL East — The division should be close all year and feature three possible 90-game winners.
1. Tampa Bay Rays — A young core of talent featuring Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton and Scott Kazmir should repeat as East division winner. Number one draft pick David Price will be up in late May to solidify an already excellent rotation. They are off to a slow start, but they were 8-12 at this point last season.
2. Boston Red Sox — A really deep pitching rotation and bullpen and a great offense will carry the Red Sox to the playoffs again. They are really hot right now.
3. New York Yankees — Pitching woes will doom the Yankees to another third place finish.
4. Toronto Blue Jays — There are some solid hitting prospects and the magnificent pitcher Roy Halladay, but there is too much firepower in the division to compete. Off to a great start hitting the ball, but it won’t last.
5. Baltimore Orioles — Mediocre pitching and mediocre hitting will lead to another Orioles cellar finish. Catching prospect Matt Wieters could add some excitement later in the year.
AL Central — A complete toss-up of a division. Any of the five teams could finish first or last.
1. Cleveland Indians — The hitting is there with Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez, but Cliff Lee will need to be nearly as good as last year for the Indians. They have started off ugly but have came around.
2. Chicago White Sox — The hitting is great and the top of the rotation is underrated, but the bullpen and back-end starters could kill them.
3. Kansas City Royals — The Royals have a criminally underrated pitching staff backed up with some young talented hitters. Zack Greinke is legitimate threat to win the Cy Young.
4. Detroit Tigers — The Tigers feature strong hitting from Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera, but iffy starters and a volatile bullpen will hold them back.
5. Minnesota Twins — The Twins are a bit of a mystery. They don’t really do anything well besides closing out games with Joe Nathan, but they always seem to be a factor in September.
AL West — Injuries and tragedy have decimated the Angels, leaving this division wide open.
1. Oakland Athletics — They brought in talented hitters like Matt Holliday, but the pitching is very young and the bullpen is up in the air.
2. Texas Rangers — Feel-good story Josh Hamilton will continue to rake in Arlington. The Rangers will need at least solid starting pitching to do anything in the playoffs.
3. Seattle Mariners — One of the biggest disappointments of last year. They hope to make one more run with Ichiro Suzuki, but I don’t think their offense is good enough to back up pitchers Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez.
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim — They won 100 games last season, but the pitching staff is missing three key starters due to injury, and the offense got worse. Vlad Guerrero is injured and just hasn’t looked the same.
NL East — Another deep division where four teams all have a shot at the playoffs.
1. New York Mets — A great all-around team that was brought down by a shabby bullpen. They addressed that issue and should be a World Series threat this year if their starting pitching past Johan Santana holds up.
2. Florida Marlins — The Marlins are a sleeper team loaded with young talent, such as shortstop Hanley Ramirez and pitcher Josh Johnson. Every five to six years, the Marlins come out of the depths and shock everyone. Don’t be surprised if they don’t fade away.
3. Atlanta Braves — They’ve revamped the pitching staff with Derek Lowe, but I’m not sure if the lineup can compete with the other teams in the division.
4. Philadelphia Phillies — They are a very hitting-dependent team, as their pitching past Cole Hamels is suspect, and even Cole Hamels has looked poor in the first month.
5. Washington Nationals — The Washington Nationals are quickly becoming the Detroit Lions of baseball.
NL Central — The Cubs are the cream of the crop and theoretically should run away with the division.
1. Chicago Cubs — A team that should have made the World Series last year improved on paper, but will they be sabotaged by another playoff disaster?
2. St. Louis Cardinals — The hitting, lead by star first bagger Albert Pujols, is stellar. The rotation and bullpen are far muddier.
3. Cincinnati Reds — Assuming Dusty Baker doesn’t ruin them, the Reds have a bunch of young players who could break out, such as Jay Bruce or Joey Votto. The Reds are probably a year or two away from being a real threat.
4. Milwaukee Brewers — The Brewers went for broke last year and failed. The hitting is still there, but the pitching staff will miss C.C. Sabathia’s arm.
5. Houston Astros — The hitting is good with Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence, but the rotation is a mystery past Roy Oswalt.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates — It’s the Pirates. They haven’t been relevant in 20 years. They won’t be this year either.
NL West — A two-horse race between the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers — The pitchers are young, but Chad Billingsley could be a star starter. Their hitting has the potential to be the best in the league and has been so far.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks — Brandon Webb and Dan Haren form an excellent top of the rotation, but the offense is anemic. With Webb on the DL, this is a mediocre baseball team.
3. San Francisco Giants — Another poor offense backed by what the Giants hope is good pitching. Past Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, I’m not sure they are strong enough to compete.
4. Colorado Rockies — They have some good young guys, but are clearly trying to build for their future after the run to the World Series in 2007.
5. San Diego Padres — The team is in fire-sale mode. Their pitching is filled with unknowns past Jake Peavy and Chris Young, and Adrian Gonzalez is their only impact hitter.
Playoffs
Divisional Round
Tampa Bay over Cleveland — Tampa Bay’s rotation and hitting depth is far too much for the meek Indians.
Boston over Oakland — Oakland will be overwhelmed by Boston’s superior talent.
Chicago Cubs over Florida — Cubs fan hope this will be vengeance for 2003. A terrifying series for the Cubs though, as all the pressure will be on them, and Florida is better than they are given credit for.
New York Mets over Los Angeles Dodgers — Having to face Johan Santana twice in a short series will stop the Dodgers this year.
League Championship Round
Tampa Bay over Boston — Tampa Bay’s rotational depth and young studs will push them over the top in an exciting rematch of last year’s American League Championship Series.
Chicago Cubs over New York Mets — The Cubs make their first World Series since 1945 over the team that stopped them from going in 1969.
World Series
Tampa Bay over Chicago Cubs — Hearts will be broken and many a bottle of beer will be consumed in Chicago when Tampa Bay ekes out a game seven win.