With its recent woes, Northwestern, once considered a lock to make its first ever NCAA Tournament, finds itself juggling chainsaws on the bubble. The ‘Cats aren’t the first team to find themselves in this position, so our staff took a look at teams from past seasons with similar résumés to see how they fared in the eyes of the selection committee.
2015-16 Michigan, 20-11 (10-8 B1G), 11-seed in NCAA Tournament – Trevor Lystad
Of the 1000+ teams to ever play in March Madness, the team most similar to this year’s ‘Cats happened to play just last year (either that, or I’m just kind of lazy). Last year’s Michigan Wolverines, who finished the regular season at 20-11 (10-8 B1G) and went 2-1 in the Big Ten Tournament, managed to grab an 11-seed in the Big Dance, playing Tulsa in a play-in game.
This year’s ‘Cats have a similar resume: Northwestern is ranked 50 in RPI (a favorite statistic of the committee); Michigan was ranked 58. Kenpom rankings, widely thought of as the most accurate measure, favor Northwestern (currently 36th) over Michigan (which finished last season 50th).
Michigan did boast some bigger signature wins, however: They took down three top-20 teams throughout the year: Maryland, Purdue and Indiana. The ‘Cats’ only really big win of the season was their Feb. 12 victory at Wisconsin, who has been struggling since the loss.
Overall, though, Michigan’s inclusion in The Dance is a good sign: The ‘Cats will likely have a nearly identical record both in and out of conference play, so the signs point to Northwestern just barely squeaking into March Madness.
2013-14 Iowa, 20-11 (9-9 B1G), 11-seed in NCAA Tournament – Tim Hackett
Iowa basketball stormed out of the gates in 2013, winning 11 of its first 13 games. Like Northwestern, Iowa had two understandable non-conferences losses – an overtime loss to then-unranked but future two-seed Villanova and a three-point defeat at the hands of rival No. 17 and eventual three-seed Iowa State.
The 2014 Big Ten season was a mixed bag for the Hawkeyes. Upset wins over No. 10 Michigan and at No. 3 Ohio State eventually boosted the Hawkeyes to the top-10, but Iowa followed up its No. 10 ranking by going 5-7, losing to four unranked teams, and finishing the regular season out of the Top 25.
Iowa defeated Northwestern by 26 points in the regular season – twice. So when the Hawkeyes and Wildcats matched up in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, it seemed like a prime opportunity for Iowa to get back to its winning ways. But Northwestern, which finished 2014 with a 14-19 record, had other ideas, handing the Hawkeyes a 67-62 defeat. Still, Iowa managed to grab an 11-seed in the NCAA tournament.
So what does this mean for the Wildcats? Here’s some numbers: Iowa finished the season 20-11, 9-9 in conference. If Northwestern loses its final two games of the year, it would finish 20-12, 9-9 in conference. Iowa lost five of its final six regular-season games. If Northwestern loses its next two, they will have done the same. Obviously Northwestern’s highest ranking of 25 doesn’t touch Iowa’s No. 10, and the Wildcats don’t have the top-10 wins the Hawkeyes had, but Northwestern’s current RPI of 50 is actually better than Iowa’s final RPI of 60.
My non-expert analysis would highly recommend that Northwestern win at least one of its final two regular-season games, or probably at least two games in the Big Ten Tournament to improve its chances of making that elusive NCAA Tournament. Should NU lose its next three games (counting one in the B1G Tourney), I don’t think all hope is lost – Iowa followed that same pattern and still made the Big Dance. All I’m saying, Northwestern fans, is that anything’s possible.
2014-15 Indiana, 19-12 (9-9 B1G), 10-seed in NCAA Tournament – Will Fischer
Northwestern has already reached 20 wins and will have to drop both of its last two to fall to .500 in Big Ten play, but Indiana suffered a similar late-season collapse that has many Wildcat fans worried. Indiana lost six of its last nine regular season games and won only its first game in the Big Ten Tournament and still received a NCAA Tournament bid. The Hoosiers had more wins over ranked opponents (four) than NU does this year (two), and their RPI was 37 compared to NU’s current rating of 50. But their late-season collapse is eerily similar to this year’s Wildcats and could help tell their fate.
NU has lost five of its last seven games with two remaining, and it must at least match Indiana’s win total – six in the last nine. It’s unlikely that NU will take down No. 16 Purdue on Sunday, which means that a win over Michigan on Wednesday is a must. After that, the ‘Cats must win at least their first round Big Ten Tournament game, like Indiana. A deep Big Ten Tournament run is unlikely, but if they could pull it off, it would greatly help the Wildcats. Overall, it’s simple: if NU wins any two of its final games, this will finally be The Year.
2014-15 Stanford, 18-12 (9-9 Pac 12), 2-seed in NIT – Evan Denton
Northwestern and Stanford may share more than just high academic standards: I see this 2016-17 NU basketball team mirroring the 2014-2015 Stanford Cardinal, a team that saw its NCAA Tournament bubble burst and wound up winning the NIT.
A recipe for a good team is its ability to pull through close, grind-it-out types of ballgames and neither one performed or has performed particularly well. Stanford went just 3-6 in games decided by five points or less, while NU is currently 4-4 in such games (including wins over lowly Rutgers and Chicago State).
Although the NCAA tournament doesn’t use this metric explicitly, how a team is playing down the stretch weighs heavily. Stanford started off PAC-12 play well at 6-2, but they lost six of their last nine and finished 9-9. Likewise, NU started Big Ten play 7-2, yet due to a recent stretch of five losses in seven games, find themselves fighting to finish above .500 in conference play.
Given how well Michigan and Purdue have been playing recently, NU desperately needs to win at least one of these next two games, or else they could face a similar fate as its scholarly counterpart out west come Selection Sunday.
2014-15 Purdue, 20-11 (12-6 B1G), 9-seed in NCAA Tournament – Meg Pisarczyk
Two years ago, Purdue suffered a 65-61 loss to Ohio State late in the regular season that resembled Northwestern’s performance last weekend at Indiana. In the games against Michigan State and Illinois that followed, the Boilermakers went 1-1, winning at home and losing on the road to end the regular season at 20-11 (12-6 BIG). In the Big Ten Tournament they also went 1-1, beating Penn State in the first round and falling to No. 6 Wisconsin after. The 2015 Purdue Boilermakers ended up with an invitation to the NCAA Tournament and was seeded ninth in the Midwest region.
At this point, Purdue’s standings parallel Northwestern’s quite favorably. NU’s RPI (50) and SOS (65) are both higher than Purdue’s were in 2015 (57 and 80, respectively), and Kenpom ranked the Boilermakers at 44 while the ‘Cats currently sit at 36. After losing five of their last seven games, Northwestern needs to beat either Michigan or Purdue in the regular season to convince the Committee they’re worthy of a spot in the Big Dance, as Purdue’s situation would have been a lot different had they lost to both Michigan State and Illinois. But if Northwestern can bring home a win for at least one of their two final games and get past the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, the Wildcats can plan on making their NCAA Tournament debut.
2015-16 Syracuse, 19-12 (9-9 ACC), 10-seed in NCAA Tournament – Hayden W. King
Northwestern in 2017 and Syracuse in 2016 represent two teams on the opposite sides of the mountain: Northwestern has been steadily ascending the ranks of college basketball since hiring Chris Collins in 2013, and Syracuse was amidst a tumble down the other side spurred by NCAA violations and falling short of recent expectations.
However, there are parallels to be drawn from the teams’ respective campaigns. Syracuse finished the 2016 regular season at 19-12, losing four of its last five going into the ACC Tournament. Northwestern is in danger of dropping five of its last six games and will likely finish either 21-11 or 20-12 in the regular season. The RPI (Northwestern is 50th and Syracuse was 72nd) and KenPom rankings (Northwestern is 36th and Syracuse was 71st) for the two schools stack up evenly as well.
So what happened to the Orangemen? In a heavily criticized decision, the selection committee granted Syracuse a 10-seed in the tourney, and Jim Boeheim’s squad went on to reach the Final Four, where it eventually lost to North Carolina. Perhaps the selection committee will give Northwestern the same opportunity; just hope the ‘Cats don’t choke in the Final Four.