As great as Dan Persa was last season –- tossing 15 touchdowns and rushing for nine more on his way to First Team All-Big Ten honors –- the quarterback did not come close to sniffing the Heisman trophy. To put it in perspective, 2010 Heisman winner Cam Newton threw for 30 touchdowns and rushed for 20 more, meaning that the Auburn quarterback amassed more than double the number of Persa’s scores.
Nobody can realistically expect Dan Persa to rack up 50 touchdowns and 4,327 yards of total offense, like Newton did a year ago (Persa had 3,100 yards of total offense in 2010, in only 10 games). But nonetheless Northwestern’s athletic department has launched the PersaStrong campaign, which aims to generate hype for the senior quarterback.
Northwestern has never had a Heisman trophy winner, so the odds are already against Persa. But what exactly would he have to accomplish in order to find himself hoisting the hardware in early December?
History not on his side
The fact that Persa is a quarterback is a step in the right direction. Since the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) era began in 1998, nine winners of the trophy have been quarterbacks, including nine of the last eleven. The two other winners –- Mark Ingram (2009) and Reggie Bush (2005) –- were both running backs. Ingram won in an exceptionally weak year for quarterbacks, and Bush won the trophy after a remarkable season that solidified the USC running back as one of college football’s all-time greats.
Since the inception of the BCS era, nine Heisman winners (out of 13) have played for the National Championship game in the same season for which they won the trophy. The teams of Heisman winners won an average of just over 11 games (not including bowl games, which occur after the trophy is awarded).
This might be problematic for Persa. Northwestern has never won eleven games in a single season in its entire football history, and has only reached ten wins twice (in 1903 and 1995). But don’t count Persa out just because of that: Texas running back Ricky Williams won the trophy in 1998 on an eight win Texas team (regular season only), and Florida quarterback Tim Tebow won in 2007 on a nine win Florida team.
Winning is clearly a major factor in awarding the trophy, but statistics are quite important as well. Of the nine quarterbacks who have won the Heisman trophy in the BCS era, all but one passed for at least 30 touchdowns and all but three passed for at least 3,000 yards, including postseason bowl games. If Persa has any chance at the Heisman, he’ll have to improve his passing statistics, though his rushing ability does give him a statistical advantage over pocket passers like Stanford quarterback and Heisman frontrunner Andrew Luck.
Although Persa’s statistics were not Heisman worthy last season, remember that he missed three games –- including the bowl loss to Texas Tech -– after injuring his Achilles against Iowa on Nov. 13. The absence of Persa in those games harmed his statistical totals at the end of the year, but — more significantly — the injury will likely limit Persa’s ability to run the football this season. His running ability was what made him so dangerous at times last season, and his injury could very well affect the way he is able to play.
Can PersaStrong help?
Winning and statistics are –- somewhat obviously -– the most important ingredients to a Heisman season. But sometimes it isn’t necessarily enough, and this is where Northwestern’s PersaStrong campaign could help Persa get over the hump.
Why? Northwestern is not a top tier college football program, even though it is clearly on the rise after recent success. The 13 Heisman winners in the BCS era have come from the following schools: Texas, Wisconsin, Florida State, Nebraska, USC (three times), Oklahoma (twice), Ohio State, Florida, Alabama and Auburn. Of those programs, only Wisconsin would likely be placed on the second tier of the college-football hierarchy –- though, based on recent success one could argue that Wisconsin is an upper-echelon program.
The reason these teams are part of college football’s elite group is because they have the best players. Their players win Heisman trophies. But sometimes, the best player statistically is not necessarily part of one of the nation’s biggest programs. And often times, voters pass up on elite players from lesser-known schools and award the trophy to a player from an elite program.
In 2009, for example, Alabama running back Mark Ingram won the Heisman trophy after rushing for 1,542 yards and 15 touchdowns in 13 games (including the Southeastern Conference championship). The voting committee passed up Stanford running back Toby Gerhart, who rushed for 1,736 yards and 26 touchdowns in a 12-game regular season. In other words, the voters passed on a player who was statistically superior on an inferior team. Ingram was just one star on a very talented Alabama team, which won the national championship, and may have done so even without Ingram on that team. A marketing campaign for Toby Gerhart akin to PersaStrong might have been the extra push needed to give the Stanford running back the trophy.
Big-time college football programs get the most hype and attention on ESPN, the center of the college football broadcasting universe. This is why it makes so much sense for the PersaStrong campaign to place a billboard in Bristol, Conn., the home of ESPN. If ESPN is talking about a particular player, then voters will talk about that player as well. Nobody says great marketing strategies can’t win Heisman trophies.
Winning and statistics come first on Dan Persa’s road to the Heisman. The more wins Northwestern has at the end of the season, the less pressure there will be on Persa to put up massive numbers. If Persa can lead his team to success and simultaneously rack up stats, then PersaStrong could be the extra push needed to get Northwestern its first ever Heisman trophy winner.