For a few days following Northwestern’s win over then-No. 12 Minnesota, there was renewed hope.
Perhaps irrationally, fans took a long look at the remaining schedule and convinced themselves the burgeoning ‘Cats still had a shot at the NCAA Tournament. After all, it had been nine years since Northwestern was .500 or better in Big Ten play this late in the season. So when the ‘Cats traveled to Lincoln on Saturday, Wildcats fans couldn’t help but assume a victory would follow.
But Northwestern lost, and it was ugly. Sophomore guard Dave Sobolewski and senior forward Jared Swopshire, who had 21 points and 16 rebounds, respectively, were the only players to show up in a 64-49 trouncing to Nebraska.
Now, the ‘Cats must travel to Michigan to battle the newly crowned No.1 Wolverines. If the last game between the Wolverines and Wildcats was any indication, this one will be tough. When these two teams met in early January, Michigan ripped Northwestern by 28 points.
If the Wildcats hope to pull off their third upset of a Top 25-team this month, they’ll have to take care of a few things:
Contain Trey Burke. When a team plays Michigan, it essentially must pick its poison. Between Glen Robinson III, Tim Hardaway Jr., Nik Stauskas and Trey Burke, the Wolverines seem to have an unlimited number of offensive weapons. Still, the sophomore Burke might be the most explosive.
Against Northwestern earlier this month, he shot 56 percent from the floor and 67 percent from three en route to his second-highest scoring total of the season. More disheartening, though, was how quickly he scored.
While he ended up with 23 points on the game, 14 of those points came in the first five minutes. Whether Northwestern employs the 1-3-1 early on to try to trap Burke or keeps a man defender in his face at all times, the ‘Cats must ensure he does not get early, wide-open shots. If he gets hot, this game could be over quickly.
Make free throws. No one thinks that Northwestern is going to blow out Michigan. If the ‘Cats can somehow win this game, it’s going to be in dramatic fashion with little margin for error.
There is no way Northwestern can afford to miss an unusual amount of free throws. Against Nebraska on Saturday, the Wildcats shot a middle school-esque 44 percent from the free throw line. That’s just plain awful.
Northwestern has not been much better for most of the season, shooting just 66 percent on foul shots. For the ‘Cats to win, they need to shoot like they did against Illinois, when they tallied nearly 84 percent from the charity stripe in an upset victory.
Find a center. In the last two games, freshman centers Alex Olah and Mike Turner have totaled just eight points and four rebounds. Essentially, this renders Northwestern one-dimensional.
When Northwestern was able to shoot effectively and wreak havoc defensively with its 1-3-1 defense, like it did against Minnesota, the team can overcome poor outputs from its centers. Yet when shots are not falling from the field and opponents get open looks, this deficiency cannot be hidden.
If a team can ignore a player and play 5-on-4 basketball, it becomes much more difficult for Northwestern to win games. It didn’t work against Nebraska, and it certainly won’t work against the Wolverines.
Prediction:
Despite a hot month, the Wildcats should come crashing down to Earth in Ann Arbor. Michigan is too strong along the perimeter and too fast on defense for Northwestern to keep up.
Michigan 74, Northwestern 59