The Northwestern women's basketball team (13-12, 3-9) came roaring into the 2011-12 season looking to compete with the best in the Big Ten with a top-tier coach and stellar recruiting class. Instead, the cracks started to show after three nonconference losses and the season fell apart as soon as conference play began.
With four regular season matchups left before the Big Ten Tournament, the ‘Cats will try to make a statement as the curtains close on their season.
Predicting a tough stretch to end season
On Thursday the team will head to Lincoln, Neb. for its first ever Big Ten meeting with the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Nebraska is solidly in the Top 25 and the Wildcats’ tendency to turn the ball over — the team currently has an abysmal 0.92 assist-to-turnover ratio — will be a factor in what is widely expected be a loss for the ‘Cats.
Next the ‘Cats will take on the University of Illinois in Champaign, Ill. Last time the two teams played, Northwestern pulled out a win by one point. The ‘Cats should grab their last win of the season here over one of the only two teams ranked lower than them in the Big Ten.
In the Wildcats’ 12 losses, they have fallen by an average of 15.2 points. Their last two games at home are rematches against tough Iowa and Michigan State opponents that dominated previous contests.
Postseason chances
After two consecutive WNIT appearances, Northwestern is not on pace to be featured in any postseason play after the Big Ten Tournament.
The Wildcats have been out of NCAA Tournament talk since they began their uncontrolled skid in Big Ten play. Unless the seemingly impossible happens and they secure an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Big Ten Tournament, their attention will turn to the WNIT and Women's Basketball Invitational (WBI).
For the first time in three years, the statistics are piled against the Wildcats receiving a bid to the WNIT. The three Big Ten teams that made the WNIT last year averaged about 17 wins with nearly eight being conference wins. Northwestern is on course to fall well short of both those marks.
To qualify for the WNIT with an at-large bid, tournament rules require teams to finish at least .500 on the season. If Northwestern continues to play as it has, it will finish under that mark and not qualify for a bid.
It's doubtful Northwestern would even accept a bid from the WBI, as no Big Ten team has participated in the tournament’s first two years in existence. Because the competition is weaker than conference play and there is a fee of $10,000 or more per game, teams from the power six conferences are rarely seen in postseason tournaments below the WNIT, a trend reflected in men’s basketball as well.
What went wrong
Northwestern is enduring a tough learning year, primarily due to the fact that the on-court leaders are very new to the college game.
After Amy Jaeschke (Northwestern’s first WNBA selection), Beth Marshall (the team’s starting point guard) and Meshia Reed (the high energy starting shooting guard) all graduated last spring, the ‘Cats were left without experience and leadership.
To make matters worse, senior forward Brittany Orban went down in November in only the sixth game of the year with a torn ACL. Only one player who started last year is still starting, and the backcourt is comprised of freshmen Karly Roser and Morgan Jones.
Bright future ahead
Because the Wildcats are so young, they will have more time to play together and grow as a team. The current freshmen were the 14th-best recruiting class in the nation this year and are lacking experience, not talent.
Hope for next season has been seen in sparks of brilliance from the young players this year in games like the 76-59 win over N.C. State. Even though Orban was injured midgame, Roser and Jones stepped up to both record double-doubles.
In addition, the team will only be losing one starter going into next year, and the 2013 campaign will have already passed the learning hurdles that slowed this year’s team.
Head coach Joe McKeown is one of the marquee women’s basketball coaches in the country and has already done much to turn this program around, reaching the WNIT two years in a row and finishing seasons with winning records. If anything, this year is a learning experience for his team, not a setback.