1) Ohio State
Coming off of consecutive Sweet Sixteen exits in the NCAA Tournament, Ohio State is an early favorite in the Big Ten Conference this season. They return one of the best players in the country in forward and sure-fire lottery pick Jared Sullinger. Though two key role players, David Lighty and Jon Diebler, have graduated, they retain most of the core of the team that started last season 24-0 and was ranked first in the nation for most of the year. If freshman Amir Williams or Boston College transfer Evan Ravenel can step in as a strong center and shift Sullinger to his natural power forward position, Ohio State will have very few weaknesses.
2) Wisconsin
The Big Ten’s other Sweet Sixteen team comes ranked 14th in the preseason USA Today Coaches Poll, led by their potential All-American point guard Jordan Taylor. Taylor is a possible candidate for Player of the Year honors, while his frontcourt partner, Josh Gasser, is an experienced sophomore who played nearly 30 minutes a game last season. Wisconsin will be looking for juniors Mike Bruesewitz and Jared Berggren to step up in the paint to replace three key forwards in Jon Leuer, Keaton Nankivil and Tim Jarmusz, while hoping that freshman Jarrod Uthoff can contribute immediately.
3) Michigan
After nearly upsetting Duke in the second round of the tournament last year, Michigan comes into the season fielding a very young team with very high expectations. Ranked 18th in the country in the preseason coaches’ poll, the Wolverines will need to find a way to replace the NBA-bound Darius Morris if they hope to live up to the hype. As the team’s leading scorer last season, sophomore guard Tim Hardaway Jr. will attempt to keep the team on its rising course, while freshman guard Trey Burke and impressive sophomore forward/center Jordan Morgan will fill key roles.
4) Purdue
The 2011 NCAA Tournament ended abruptly for the Boilermakers when the Cinderella-story VCU Rams defeated them handily in the second round on the way to an improbable Final Four appearance. While JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore, their top two scorers from last season, have gone on to play professionally, Purdue does get forward Robbie Hummel back from injury for his seniors season after missing all last year with a torn ACL. Hummel has averaged nearly 30 minutes per game in his three years at Purdue and scored close to 16 points per game during the 2009-2010 season. Currently sitting just outside the coaches’ top 25, Purdue may move up quickly.
5) Michigan State
Tom Izzo’s crew took a big step back last season, failing to win an NCAA Tournament game for the first time since 2006, and only the fourth time since 1997. Gone are Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers and Korie Lucious (who was dismissed midseason), leaving forward Draymond Green as the Spartans’ top scoring threat. Keith Appling heads a very inexperienced backcourt, as the only player besides Green who played more than 20 minutes per game last season. With Izzo at the reins, you can never count the Spartans out, but they are not likely to contend for the conference crown this season.
6) Northwestern
The Wildcats may be one of the tougher teams to evaluate coming into the season, given the challenge of replacing the Big Ten’s leader in minutes played, Michael “Juice” Thompson. While they will miss both his scoring and his facilitation on the offensive end dearly, highly used backup Alex Marcotullio and freshman Tre Demps will attempt to fill his void as best they can. The Wildcats’ greatest hopes rest on the shoulders of John Shurna, who was having a terrific season last year (averaging 24.4 points per game through his first nine) before injuring his ankle and seeing a significant downturn in offensive production. If the Wildcats can find some way to replace Thompson’s leadership and production, then Northwestern may finally be able to get the Big Dance monkey off its back.
7) Illinois
With their top three scorers graduating, Illinois will be losing over half of its points scored from last season. They are not lacking for physical talent, with athletic guards like juniors Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson, and sizable big men like sophomore Meyers Leonard and freshman Nnanna Egwu. Illinois‘ challenge will be translating that potential into on-court success. The Illini will need a few players to step into larger roles if they hope to challenge for a tournament bid.
8) Minnesota
Though the Golden Gophers lost one of their top scorers in Blake Hoffarber, preseason first-team All-Big Ten forward Trevor Mbakwe will be returning to the Twin Cities. With just two seniors and three juniors on the team, Minnesota will rely heavily on Mbakwe (who averaged a double-double last season) and fellow senior Ralph Sampson III to pull their weight as the underclassmen step into bigger roles. After a late season collapse last year, Minnesota will need significant growth from sophomores Austin Hollins and Chip Armelin to get their name back in the tournament discussion.
9) Indiana
The Hoosiers enter this season with a sense of optimism that hasn’t been around Indiana since Eric Gordon’s brief tenure in Bloomington. Freshman Cody Zeller (the 14th ranked player in the country according to the ESPNU 100) and developing sophomores Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey have Hoosier fans thinking big again. However, this young, talented team hasn’t accomplished anything of note in recent years, and likely isn’t quite ready to make the jump to contention.
10) Nebraska
Despite a solid season for the Cornhuskers last season, where they finished seven games over .500 and knocked off two top-15 teams, the outlook for their inaugural Big Ten season is relatively bleak. They lost their top player in guard Lance Jeter and are likely to struggle after leaving the easier Big 12 Conference. Even with junior center Jorge Brian Diaz returning and a lot of size up front, Nebraska’s transition to the Big Ten nonetheless promises to be a rocky one.
11) Iowa
The good news for Iowa is that they return six of their top seven scorers from last season, as well as their leaders in every major statistical category. Only Jarryd Cole, a key role player, departs. The bad news, however, is that last year’s roster landed at 10th in the Big Ten when the conference fielded just 11 teams. Don’t expect things to get much better for the Hawkeyes.
12) Penn State
Though Penn State made the tournament and lost its opening game by two points last season, things will likely go an entirely different direction this season. They’ve lost their own Juice Thompson in Talor Battle, as well as three more of their top five scorers from last season, with the four departing players accounting for approximately three quarters of the team’s points last season. To make things more difficult, the Nittany Lions are also dealing with a coaching change, welcoming new head coach Patrick Chambers from Boston University after Ed DeChellis left to coach Navy during the summer. While they hope junior guard Tim Frazier can step up, there are too many holes that need filling before the Nittany Lions will go anywhere.