After a 61-42 loss to instate rival Illinois, during which Welsh-Ryan Arena was dominated by orange-clad fans, Northwestern may have hit rock bottom.
Now at an even 13-13, the Wildcats are fighting for their normally guaranteed NIT bid.
But in the Big Ten, it never gets easier, as the Wildcats face No. 19 Wisconsin on Wednesday. Here's what the 'Cats need to do to somehow upset the Badgers for the first time in four years.
Hit the boards
Wisconsin ranks seventh in the Big Ten in defensive rebounds per game, but Northwestern is tied for last. Simple enough.
When any team plays Wisconsin, cleaning up the glass is always an area of importance. For Northwestern, it’s at the top of the list, as the Wildcats have been outsized and outmuscled down low all season long.
Wisconsin only gives up 7.5 offensive rebounds per game, so it’s unlikely that the 'Cats are going to get many second-chance opportunities. Instead, they have to focus on limiting the Badgers’ chances. Whether in man-to-man defense or the zone, each Northwestern player needs to box out and chase down the loose balls. If the 'Cats can do that, this game is more likely to be decided on offensive execution.
Point guard presence
Sunday’s loss was an awful performance from the whole team, but it was a particularly rough night for sophomore point guard Dave Sobolewski. It wasn’t necessarily because of what Sobo did wrong, but rather what he didn’t do.
Sobolewski was held without an assist for the first time in his Northwestern career, and he went scoreless for just the third time. He settled for jumpers much more than usual against the impenetrable Illini defense instead of driving to the basket and drawing fouls.
Expectations are high for the point guard – and with good reason. Sobo has shown that he’s the anchor to a balanced Northwestern offense, and the shorthanded Wildcats need him to perform at a high level every night. Against Wisconsin, Sobolewski needs to get back to his aggressiveness on offense, and it starts with him showing that he can get to the rim and make easy buckets. If he does that, it’ll open up opportunities for him on the perimeter and free up his teammates.
Smart defense
Chances are that the 1-3-1 defense won’t work against Wisconsin. The Badgers take great care of the ball, turning it over just 9.5 times per game. They’re also a solid three-point shooting team, which poses a problem. If the Wildcats go to the zone and try to force Wisconsin to make mistakes, it will lead to more open jumpers in the corners.
Northwestern needs to play solid, man-to-man defense for 35 seconds each possession. The 'Cats aren’t going to make Wisconsin uncomfortable, so they need to just focus on staying between their men and the basket. These are two teams who like to keep the tempo slow, so Northwestern needs to take advantage by playing textbook defense.
Prediction
Wisconsin is coming off a blowout win over No. 13 Ohio State, but the Badgers have struggled on the road, losing three of their last four. Little is expected of the Wildcats in this one, so look for them to come out aggressive like they’ve got nothing to lose. An upset is definitely possible.
Northwestern has been painfully inconsistent all year and the Badgers play slow enough to give the 'Cats a chance.
Northwestern 59, Wisconsin 57