North by Northwestern

Our staff predictions are the third installment of our 2016 football preview. We covered NU’s emerging offense on Saturday, took a look at the dominant defense on Monday and still have the world-famous Get Home Safe podcast upcoming on Friday.

Three: the amount of days left until Northwestern opens its season against Western Michigan. Also three: the amount of losses NU had last season. Excluding the Outback Bowl loss (we all wish we could do this permanently), the Wildcats enjoyed a 10-2 campaign last year, one of their best records ever. Will NU come back to Earth? Or can the ‘Cats improve (gasp) on one of their most successful seasons in history?

We’re willing to give you our best guess – but we don’t pretend to be fortune tellers. Sometimes it just happens.

Hayden King: 8-4

The formula was simple for head coach Pat Fitzgerald and the 2015 Wildcats: play menacing defense, score just enough and run down the clock with Justin Jackson. Don’t believe me? Ask Stanford head coach David Shaw. But how will the formula hold up in 2016?

The Wildcat defense returns all but four of its starters from last year, including preseason All-American and long-lost son of Coach Fitz: Anthony Walker. So long as players like Godwin Igwebuike and C.J. Robbins can help fill the voids at safety and on the defensive line, the ‘Cats defense will be a force to be reckoned with in 2016. Bigger question marks arise for the ‘Cats on offense, but the NU coaching staff has made an attempt to answer them. The backfield features two elite runners in Justin Jackson and Clayton Thorson, but they’ll have to find other means of moving the ball if they want to score against more athletic teams.

Don’t sleep on Solomon Vault. One of the fastest players on the team, the 5-foot-10 Vault switched from running back to wide receiver in the offseason. Though different in stature, Vault could be the key to replacing Dan Vitale in the middle by using his speed out of the slot. Also, his karma is undoubtedly at an all-time high after honoring one of America’s heroes on his cleats in camp.

Will Fischer: 9-3

I had the Wildcats pegged at 8-4 coming into the season, but as we inch closer to opening day, I’m feeling more and more optimistic. Clayton Thorson is reportedly more confident than ever, and I think we see both his presence and awareness improve. He’s not going to be slinging touchdowns left and right, but he should be able to manage games better by making smarter decisions, and with Justin Jackson and Warren Long, that’s all the ‘Cats will need.

Anthony Walker, one of the best linebackers in the country (that has a nice ring to it), will lead a defense that may regress a little due to the losses of Dean Lowry, Deonte Gibson, Nick VanHoose and Traveon Henry. But NU’s defense will still be one of the best units in the country, and it will win them games.

The ‘Cats will almost definitely lose at Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State. But what other games will they lose? They get Wisconsin and Nebraska at home, both teams they handled on the road last year. At Minnesota? A fourth loss is possible, but so is the chance they beat one of those three powerhouses on the road. Alright, maybe that’s too optimistic – it’s the Trevor Siemian in me talking.

Andy Brown: 8-4

It seemed that Northwestern couldn't decide if it was the best mediocre team ever (see 78 point differential in nine FBS wins) or the worst good team ever (see 107 point differential in three losses) for much of last season. Unless the passing game shows marked improvement, I would expect that to continue. The 'Cats should compete with and beat most of the middle to lower-tier teams on their schedule, but that brutal October stretch looms large, and will ultimately be what determines whether this team is in the 9-10 win range (or more, but that's a pipe dream) or slides back to 7-8 wins.

The defense is still maybe good enough to win five games on its own even with a Pop Warner QB out there, but Clayton Thorson and an unproven receiver corps will have to step up to keep what portends to be a very tough first half of conference play from spiraling into a prolonged losing streak, a la 2013 and 2014. The first four and last three games of NU's schedule allow it some breathing room as far as bowl eligibility is concerned, but that murderer's row of a middle section will make it that much more imperative on the 'Cats to take care of business against seemingly inferior competition.

Max Goodman: 7-5

Don’t get me wrong, I’m optimistic about this year for Northwestern. I expect Justin Jackson to prove himself as one of the best rushers in the Big Ten and I predict a breakout sophomore season from QB Clayton Thorson along with another all around solid year from the Wildcat defensive unit, anchored by All-American Anthony Walker. And yet, yes, I have the ‘Cats finishing with only seven victories.

NU’s youthful core has its hands full in attempting to overcome the losses of Dean Lowry, Dan Vitale and other key contributors from a season ago. With their schedule as tough as it is, and boy oh boy it’s a tough one, I just can’t see this lack of experience giving the ‘Cats the umph they need to find ways to win more than seven games this season. It’s already difficult enough to beat the likes of Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State, but to do it on the road over the course of a single month would require a miracle. I wouldn’t be surprised if NU’s record in October ends up being scarier than Halloween.

But hey, don’t count out these Cardiac ‘Cats just yet – an upset or two could push the ‘Cats over the edge and into contention for a Big Ten title or even a notable bowl game. Either way, as Wildcat fans have come to know, a whole lot can happen over the course of a Big Ten college football season, so buckle up, because this is set to be quite a wild ride.

via GIPHY

Tim Hackett: 8-4

The 2016 season is going to start perfectly. After expected wins over Western Michigan and Illinois State, the Wildcats will take care of business against Duke, their first legitimate opponent. They will then improve to 4-0 with a close-but-still-convincing win over Nebraska, a win that will surely have everyone flashing back to last year, with visions of national rankings and significant bowl games dancing in our heads like sugar plum fairies.

But then all that good cheer will end as abruptly as the holiday season does when Northwestern plays its first road game against its first actually good opponent, getting trounced by Iowa. They will subsequently be blown out by Michigan State. To make matters worse, the ‘Cats will return home and find a way to lose on Homecoming – to Indiana. Sensing they have no real chance, they will head to Columbus, Ohio, and give Ohio State a decent game but still lose handily, dropping their record to 4-4 and sending those lofty dreams crashing with them.

But then, as the calendar shifts to November, the magic will return when NU defeats its final four foes to wrap up a respectable 8-4 campaign, which will see them head off to a mid-range bowl and face off against another solid Power 5 team.

Austin Siegel: 8-4

It's been a relatively quiet offseason for Team Coconut Shrimp, as Northwestern comes into the 2016 season without any of the hype that usually surrounds a Big Ten team after an impressive 10-win season. Maybe it's because the liberal media loves to hate on union-busters, but more likely, it has to do with Northwestern's gauntlet of a Big Ten schedule and all the close wins the Wildcats pulled off last season. Some people are skeptical and that's fine with me.

But let's talk in October.

With three road games against teams that went a combined 36-5 in 2015, NU is either going to be a national afterthought or a legitimate threat to win the Big Ten West by Halloween. I'm going to say the Wildcats end up somewhere in the middle, playing well in close losses to Big Ten powerhouses, but also dropping at least one game against the likes of Nebraska or Wisconsin. Put me down for 8-4 (5-4 B1G) and another trip to a January bowl game.

Jason Mast: 7-5

Look, this is a team primed for regression. We know that. The Wildcats went 10-2 last year off the back of an unsustainable 5-0 record in single-possession games and a week one trench victory against Stanford that at the time seemed miraculous. In hindsight, after the Cardinal went on to lose just one more game that season, it seems a bit too miraculous. Stanford, Michigan, Iowa and then Tennessee in the Outback Bowl made for a difficult 2015 schedule, but this year both Ohio State and Michigan State (oh, and Iowa) await in a brutal October.

Still, this is not a bad team. Led by All-American and potential first round pick Anthony Walker, the defense is still elite. They have a four-star recruit at quarterback who should only improve in his sophomore season, particularly with a shored-up wide receiver core. Expect regression but not – dare I say it – 2013 levels.

Here's a reminder of what NU's schedule looks like (home games in bold, at Ryan Field). Stay tuned for the final part of our preview, the first episode of Season 2 of our Get Home Safe podcast. 

Sep. 3 - Western Michigan, 11 a.m.

Sep. 10 - Illinois State, 2:30 p.m.

Sep. 17 - Duke, 7 p.m.

Sep. 24 - Nebraska, 6:30 p.m.

Oct. 1 - at Iowa, 11 a.m.

Oct. 15 - at Michigan State, 2:30 p.m.

Oct. 22 - Indiana (Homecoming), 11 a.m.

Oct. 29 - at Ohio State, 4:30 p.m.

Nov. 5 - Wisconsin, TBD

Nov. 12 - at Purdue, TBD

Nov. 19 - at Minnesota, TBD